CNN polls: Harris has a narrow lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, while she and Trump remain tied in Pennsylvania

CNN
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According to new CNN polls from SSRS, Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow lead in two of the three “blue wall” states that, taken together, represent her clearest path to an Electoral College victory over former President Donald Trump.

In Michigan, Harris has a 48% to 43% lead over Trump among likely voters. Harris also leads Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% support her and 45% for Trump. However, the race is undecided in Pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the largest electoral victory of the three states and a central part of both candidates' hopes of winning the White House. All three states dropped in favor of Trump in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020.

Of the seven states classified by CNN as in disarray, Michigan and Wisconsin are the only two that still have Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on voters' ballots – the former independent candidate who suspended his bid for the presidency and expressed his support for Trump. Kennedy has 3% support in Michigan and 1% support in Wisconsin. Support for third-party and independent candidates overall is highest in Michigan, where 6% of likely voters there say they support a candidate other than Harris or Trump.

Among likely voters who express the greatest motivation to turn out, there is less support for independent and third-party candidates. Among likely voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris and 45% support Trump. In Wisconsin they split 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania they split 50% Harris to 47% Trump.

The overall results are almost identical to those of the last round of CNN polling in these three states, conducted in late summer, when Harris led Trump 50% to 44% in Wisconsin and 48% to 43% in Michigan, with Harris and Trump The same figure was 47% in Pennsylvania.

The vast majority of voters in the Blue Wall State have made up their minds about their choice. Only 8% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan and 6% in Wisconsin say they have not yet made a choice or may change their mind before Election Day.

Harris is much closer to Trump in terms of confidence in handling the economy and has a larger lead over him in handling democracy in Michigan and Wisconsin, where she also has larger advantages on key characteristics than in Pennsylvania. These differences explain their stronger performance in upper Midwestern states.

Their deficit with Trump in confidence in managing the economy – a perennial top election issue and a Trump strength in the 2024 campaign – is more modest in these states: just 4 points separate the two in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin, differences , which lie within the sampling error margin of each survey. By contrast, in Pennsylvania, Harris is eight points behind Trump on this issue. Harris also has an 8-point lead over Trump on trust to protect democracy in Michigan and Wisconsin, compared to a narrow 4-point lead in Pennsylvania.

Voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also likely give Harris a relatively large advantage in terms of perceptions that she is more honest and trustworthy: In Wisconsin, she leads Trump in this capacity by 17 points and in Michigan by 16 points, compared to a margin of 7 points in Pennsylvania. And voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also say Harris is the candidate more likely to put the country's interests ahead of her own: Likely voters in Wisconsin say this by a 10-point margin and likely voters in Michigan by a margin of 8 points. This is an issue in Pennsylvania, where likely voters are roughly evenly split (46% Harris to 45% Trump).

These voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are more likely than those in Pennsylvania to say Harris cares about people like them, by 9 percentage points in the upper Midwest states, compared to just a 3 percentage point difference in Pennsylvania.

In each of the three states, the percentage of likely voters who say they support Harris is higher than the percentage who say she shares their vision for the United States, while Trump's overall support is more consistent with his stance on the issue. That could suggest that some voters are supporting Harris less out of enthusiasm for her platform and more out of concern for Trump's character.

Across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a majority of voters who say leadership is a priority in their votes support Harris. And in every state, about four in 10 of their supporters say they are more likely to vote against Trump than to support him. That's more than the share of Trump voters who say they're overwhelmingly voting against Harris.

Harris' narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin are due in part to the relatively strong showing of white voters and white voters without a college degree, two groups that have traditionally antagonized Republicans. White voters are almost evenly split in both states (48% Trump to 44% Harris in Michigan and 48% each in Wisconsin, which has a larger white population than the other two states). Trump's lead among white voters without a college degree in these two states falls short of his lead among the same group in Pennsylvania (Trump leads 54% to 37% in Michigan, 54% to 43% in Wisconsin and 61% to 34% in Pennsylvania). ). .

Harris has a larger lead among black voters in Michigan (83% Harris to 12% Trump) than in Pennsylvania (76% Harris to 21% Trump). She has significant advantages among college-educated likely voters in all three states (59% to 36% in Wisconsin, 56% to 36% in Michigan, and 59% to 37% in Pennsylvania).

The tighter race in Pennsylvania is reflected among urban and rural voters within the state: Harris' lead among likely voters who say they live in an urban area in Pennsylvania (53% to 38%) is much smaller than in Michigan (61% to 31%). %) or Wisconsin (70% to 28%), while Trump's lead among likely rural voters is highest in the Keystone State (68% to 30%, compared to 61% to 31% in Wisconsin and 56% to 35% in Michigan). .

However, likely voters in the suburbs largely vote for Harris in all three states (55% to 40% in Pennsylvania, 52% to 40% in Michigan and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin). The suburban vote represents about half of likely voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 37% in Michigan and 28% in Wisconsin.

There is a closely contested Senate race in all three states for seats that Democrats are defending. The polls show close races for all three. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan leads Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers among likely voters, 48% to 42%. Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has 48% support to Republican Dave McCormick's 45% in a race with no clear front-runner. And in Wisconsin, there is no clear front-runner in the Senate race either: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has 49% support to Republican Eric Hovde's 47%.

Compared to the battlegrounds in the South and West, the blue wall states have historically been less likely to vote early or by mail, and only about a third or fewer voters in those three states say they have already cast their ballots. In Michigan, 36% of likely voters say they have either mailed a ballot or voted early, 34% in Wisconsin and 26% in Pennsylvania. This is the first presidential election in which Michigan has conducted in-person early voting, and voter turnout surged in the first days of statewide early voting over the weekend.

Those who say they have already voted are among the most likely voters in each poll, and in all three states they vote significantly for Harris (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin and 57% against …). 40% in Pennsylvania). If these numbers from Pennsylvania hold, they would reflect a significant shift in Trump's favor compared to votes cast by mail in the 2020 election: According to the state's election results, Biden received 76% of those votes to Trump's 23%.

Three-quarters or more of likely voters in each of the three states surveyed say they are at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in this year's election. Nearly 95% or more of Harris supporters in every state express confidence, compared with about 6 in 10 Trump supporters in every state.

Interviews were conducted online and by telephone from October 23-28, 2024, with registered voters, including 726 voters in Michigan, 819 in Pennsylvania, and 736 in Wisconsin. Likely voters include all registered voters in the survey, weighted by their predicted likelihood of voting in this year's election. The results among likely voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; Among likely voters in Wisconsin, he is at 4.8 points.