CNN data guru describes 'signs' pointing to Trump's victory: If he wins, 'it will have been obvious'

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten explained the signs pointing to a possible victory for former President Trump next week.

Enten mentioned that the percentage of people happy with the current direction of the country, President Biden's current approval numbers and high voter registration numbers among Republicans in swing states are all things that signal Trump's re-election next week.

“If the Republicans win next week — and Donald Trump wins next week, the signs have always been clear,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.

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On Tuesday, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten discussed three “signs” that point to a Trump victory next month. (Screenshot/CNN)

Enten began by talking about how Vice President Kamala Harris' chances of winning are slimmer since she is the incumbent, even though only 28 percent of Americans believe the country is on the right track.

He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average rate of Americans who believe the country is on the right track if the incumbent loses is 25 percent. The average rate for the incumbent to win is 42 percent.

He mentioned the 28 percent number and said, “It looks nothing at all – nothing – like that 42 percent… So the bottom line is that very few Americans believe that the country is on the right track at this particular point in time.” It depends much more on when the incumbent party loses than on when it wins.”

Enten then explained the second sign – that historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating will not be replaced by a candidate from the same party.

“So I went back and looked. Okay, was this successor from the same party when the president's net approval rating was negative at that point, which Joe Biden's definitely is? He’s 15 points lower.”

Enten pointed to how George W. Bush, who had a negative net approval rating in 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same formulation was appropriate at the end of the term of former President Lyndon B. Johnson, which was followed by the term of Republican Richard Nixon. The same was true at the end of Harry Truman's presidency in 1952.

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Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, USA, on Tuesday, October 22, 2024. Photographer: Cornell Watson/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Cornell Watson)

“Harry S. Truman – his approval rating was in the 20s, if not the high teens. Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in 1952? My recollection – no,” he said, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower succeeded Truman.

Summing up the second sign pointing to Trump's victory, he said: “The bottom line for Kamala Harris to win is that she would have to break history and be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden, if Biden's approval rating is wide at that point.” is below the level.”

Enten's third sign was the fact that Republican voter registration has outpaced Democratic voter registration in swing states. “So the Republicans are bringing more Republicans into the electorate, the number of Democrats versus the number of Republicans has shrunk,” the reporter explained.

He then concluded with a summary of the overall results, stating: “We would assume that the right direction is very low, Joe Biden's approval rating is very low and Republicans are actually putting up numbers. You can't say you weren't warned.”

Enten's assessment comes a day after he warned that polls could be underestimating Harris' performance. He argued Tuesday that polls ahead of the 2022 midterm elections have underestimated Democratic Party support by about four points, and said that may currently be the case with Harris' numbers, which show her essentially tied with Trump.

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