Who will win the election? Polls between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in five days

The 2024 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appears closer than ever as the race enters its final week.

Pollsters and forecasters believe Trump has a slight advantage over the Democratic candidate, but it could still go either way.

Trump's national averages have improved slightly over Harris since last week, although most prominent aggregators still show the vice president ahead overall. The battle between Harris and Trump in the seven key swing states that could ultimately decide the election remains a neck-and-neck race, with the candidates either nearly tied or just ahead in various polls.

Newsweek emailed both campaign teams for comment.

Veteran pollster Nate Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight and now uses a similar forecasting model for his Silver Bulletin blog, recently wrote in: The New York Times that calling the race a 50-50 draw was the “only responsible prediction.” Silver added that his “gut feeling” suggests Trump will win in the Electoral College vote.

“However, I don’t believe anyone’s gut feeling should be given any value, including mine,” Silver wrote. “Instead, you should come to terms with the fact that a 50:50 forecast actually means 50:50. You should remain open to the possibility that these predictions are wrong, and that could also be the case towards Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”

Harris' clearest path to victory in November would depend on winning the three battleground blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump's most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

National averages

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a national average lead of just over 1.4 points (48.1 percent to 46.7 percent) over Trump. This is a slight decrease from the 1.7 point lead she had on October 22, when there were two weeks left in the election.

The poll aggregator says Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning the race in November, but emphasizes that it remains essentially a toss-up.

“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at FiveThirtyEight lately: A close race in the polls doesn't necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” FiveThirthyEight's G. Elliott Morris wrote. “All seven swing states are still within normal polling error of arriving at the candidate who is currently 'losing' in each.”

Silver's model gives Harris a national average poll lead over Trump of 1.1 points (48.6 percent to 47.5 percent). Trump's numbers improved by 0.5 points compared to last week.

On October 26, RealClearPolitics reported that Trump had surpassed Harris in the national average for the first time since the vice president became the Democratic Party's nominee in 2024. Trump currently leads Harris by 0.4 points, 48.4 percent to Harris' 48 percent.

According to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill's, Harris leads Trump by 0.6 percent nationally (48.3 percent to 47.7 percent). This is less than the 1-point lead the vice president had last week.

Swing states

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris and Trump are incredibly close in four of seven battleground states. In Nevada, Harris leads by 0.1 points (47.6 to 47.5), in Wisconsin by 0.3 points (48.0 to 47.7) and in Michigan by 0.7 points (48 to 47.2) . Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania by 0.4 points (48 to 47.6).

Trump has larger leads in North Carolina (plus 1.1 points), Georgia (1.8 points) and Arizona (2.2 points).

According to Silver Bulletin, Harris is ahead in Nevada (0.1 points), Michigan (0.9 points) and Wisconsin (0.3 points). Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania (0.4 points), North Carolina (1.1 points), Georgia (1.9 points) and Arizona (2.3 points).

RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading Harris in every swing state except Michigan, where Harris leads by 0.5 points.

The former president leads in Arizona (up 2.5 points), Georgia (2.4 points), Nevada (0.5 points), North Carolina (1 point), Pennsylvania (0.5 points) and Wisconsin (0.6 points). points).