We may not know who won on Election Day. Maricopa County could be the reason why

Judy Schwiebert grew up in west Phoenix in the 1960s, when the now-booming city was a “nice little town” and the biggest event of the year was the three-day rodeo.

Everything stopped for the rodeo parade as horse-drawn carriages, marching bands and dancers paraded through town. Schools remained closed for three days, recalls Schwiebert, who is now a Democratic state representative. In 1969, fewer than a million people lived in the district, less than a quarter of its current size.

“Over the years I’ve seen it continue to grow here,” she said.

The area became a magnet for conservatives like John Kavanagh, a retired New York Port Authority police officer. After 20 years of police service, Kavanagh and his wife headed west to Maricopa County.

Kavanagh, like many other people who moved to Arizona in the 1990s — middle-class people fleeing colder climes and what they saw as economic and political dysfunction around them — favored a place that was sunny, affordable and of their own opinion for a cleaner city.

“A lot of people came from these other towns and don’t want a repeat of what they left,” Kavanagh said.

In 1993 the district had 2.3 million inhabitants. Republicans dominated the state legislature and Maricopa County politics. As a young transplant state, it was easier for newcomers to enter politics in Arizona than elsewhere. Kavanagh was elected to the state House of Representatives in 2006. He is now serving his first term in the state Senate; The county's population has nearly doubled since his arrival, and policies have changed.

Arizona now has a Democratic governor who will be elected in 2022. Both U.S. senators – Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema – were elected as Democrats, although Sinema has since become an independent.

Kavanagh attributes the county's shift to the left to a variety of factors – from societal changes that he says are driven by the media and academia to people moving to Arizona for higher-paying jobs that are more require education.

“Hopefully there will be a point where people look and see what the outcome will be if this trend continues,” Kavanagh said, predicting a strong November for his Republican Party. “Just look at LA, look at New York, you know, look at Seattle. There will continue to be a sustained shift to the left. So let’s make a hard stop and maybe take a few steps back to the right.”

Apparently many who moved to Maricopa in recent decades were not like Kavanagh. The county's conservative, low-tax approach attracted both businesses and individuals, and these businesses then attracted a workforce that was sometimes different from the older people relocated to Arizona.

Condos and apartments give way to the Phoenix skyline on Tuesday, September 24, 2024, in Tempe, Arizona. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

South Mountain Park and Preserve and nearby subdivision, Phoenix, Thursday, June 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Serkan Gurbuz)

South Mountain Park and Preserve and nearby subdivision, Phoenix, Thursday, June 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Serkan Gurbuz)

Kevin Henderson moved to Maricopa in 2010 at age 23 after living in Chicago and Portland, Oregon. As a Democrat who works in the restaurant industry, he was pleasantly surprised by life in what was then a red state and the live-and-let-live attitude of its residents.

“The people were very friendly,” said Henderson, now 37. “We're fortunate that with such a diverse group of people, we're very understanding and accepting of other people's views.”

While people like Henderson came from other places within the United States, increasing migration from Mexico to Arizona also sparked political change.

In the 1990s, President Bill Clinton's administration strengthened California's border and spurred illegal migration to Arizona, which already had a large Hispanic population. Immigration quickly became a political flashpoint, leaving many of Maricopa's growing Latino population feeling legally demonized by Republicans.

The biggest change came in 2010, when Arizona's Republican-dominated Legislature passed a law allowing local police to stop people they suspected of being in the country illegally. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the law, but it motivated the state's Latinos to organize against Republicans.

The law, which opponents have called “show me your papers,” is the harshest anti-immigrant law in the country and has changed politics in Arizona, Latino activist Garcia said. There were boycotts and protests. Nationally and internationally, people knew Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio – who championed the law – and his anti-immigrant crime crackdown.

In 2010, Republicans dominated the state and their hammer attack on Maricopa County seemed likely to continue despite growing Latino discontent.

But that would change when a new GOP leader emerged.