Has the NBA title window closed for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks?

Starting the season 1-3 isn't the end of the world, but for a team with championship aspirations like the Milwaukee Bucks, it's an uncertain start.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard still haven't found their rhythm, and it's clear this partnership needs more time – and help. Khris Middleton is still out. The core is aging, the bench is weak and the prospect pool is almost non-existent. Making matters worse is that the Bucks don't control a single draft pick until 2031. And, oh yeah – Doc Rivers is the coach. Has the title window quietly closed in Milwaukee?

I would bet: Yes, the Giannis Era Bucks will go down as the definitive champions. And there's nothing wrong with that at all. Their title run in 2021 was one for the ages, with Giannis looking like he would be sidelined with a serious injury, only to return, dominate and drop 50 points in the deciding game.

Of course, there are no certainties in the NBA. There are trades and surprises. Injuries occur. Just ask the 2019 Raptors.

The Giannis-Dame duo still has a chance to thrive. Statistically speaking, they still have a high value when Giannis fills in for Lillard. This is despite the fact that Giannis is a mediocre screener. He often steps inside the defender and makes light contact before sliding toward the rim, while Brook Lopez makes hard contact at an angle that gives Lillard a runway to the rim or room to get in his jumper. Right now, Lopez is setting almost twice as many screens for Lillard as Giannis. So Giannis needs to improve in this regard and should prioritize it, even if it means taking fewer shots himself.

Milwaukee acquired Lillard for good reason. And after a down year, he looks as spry now as he did in the 2022-23 season in Portland, when he averaged a career-high 32.2 points and shot at 64.5%. At some point, the Bucks will likely get over .500, Giannis and Dame will have standout performances, and Middleton will return. There will be optimism in Milwaukee, at least for a while.

The problem affects almost everyone else in the squad. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack reliable shooting; They rank 18th in 3-point percentage and 23rd in attempts. And when Lopez isn't on the floor, the Bucks' defense collapses. The sample sizes are small, but the Bucks go from a modest defensive rating of 112.1 with Lopez to a 122.3 rating with Bobby Portis. Portis will have five-minute periods where he hits every shot, but that doesn't make up for his inability to box, his ball-stopping and his blindfolded defensive awareness.

Jrue Holiday's absence left a hole in perimeter defense and reliability that Milwaukee couldn't replace. Holiday's trade for Lillard was intended to bolster the offense, but the team now feels vulnerable defensively. Gary Trent Jr. bounced around for a reason; he is not the answer.

In the Bucks' loss to the Celtics on Sunday, Boston had shooters at every position – including Holiday – while Milwaukee made only a quarter of its three-pointers attempted. The difference in depth was clear across the board. The Celtics have two of the NBA's best backup players at their respective positions: point guard Payton Pritchard, who they drafted and developed, and center Luke Kornet, who they acquired when he was just 25 years old. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a wasteland full of dead people, busted draft picks, and immature youth.

Bucks general manager Jon Horst had a chance to surround Giannis with the right talent, but he is disappointed. For years, Milwaukee has either traded draft picks or opted for prospects with potential rather than immediate impact. Since Horst took over as GM in 2017, he has drafted six players in the top 40:

• DJ Wilson, 17th in 2017

• Donte DiVincenzo, 17th in 2018

• MarJon Beauchamp, 24th in 2022

• Andre Jackson, 36th in 2023

• AJ Johnson, 23rd in 2024

• Tyler Smith, 33rd in 2024

DiVincenzo is a hit, even if he didn't come into his own until the Bucks traded him for the old, fading Serge Ibaka. Jackson still has potential, but his shaky jump makes him a challenge to play alongside Giannis.

But the following players were drafted in the first round after Wilson: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White and Josh Hart. All six remain productive players. Wilson plays for the Shanghai Sharks.

And Johnson's selection in the 2024 draft is one of the most puzzling decisions in recent memory. Johnson weighs 167 pounds. Last year in Australia he averaged 2.9 points while shooting 42%. He's two years away from being two years away. But the Bucks – a team with a 36-year-old center, a 34-year-old point guard, a 33-year-old two guard and a soon-to-be 30-year-old face of the franchise – decided to wait for the slim chance that anything would ever come of him becomes. Meanwhile, there were other NBA-ready rookies on the board, such as Suns forward Ryan Dunn, who is one of the best defenders to enter the NBA in recent memory and has made over 40% of his 3s so far.

Horst was instrumental in building a championship team around Giannis by acquiring Lopez, Jrue Holiday and PJ Tucker, firing Jason Kidd and hiring Mike Budenholzer. But a GM who went all-in for the title now faces the cost of win-now decisions when his margin moves haven't worked out. If they trade away every pick through 2031, they will have no assets left at the trade deadline, and young players will also have no value in game-changing acquisitions. In the years since he won it all, he's fallen short of every draft pick and struck out at every shot in the late second round and undrafted stages (although AJ Green is a hustler). And other decisions didn't pan out, whether it was DiVincenzo for Ibaka, five second-rounders for the down-and-out Jae Crowder, or hiring Adrian Griffin and firing him just to hire Doc.

Rivers will likely become a scapegoat if the team continues to stumble. And in a way that's fair. This system feels old and sluggish. The spirit is also missing. On the one hand, how much can a coach accomplish with an aging core, few resources and a depleted bench? On the other hand, even the best squad can fail under the wrong coach. Just ask the Magic, Celtics and Clippers about Doc's track record of three lost 3-1 leads and five missed 3-2 leads. But right now, the Bucks have to worry about winning games before they think about winning the playoff series.

This season is about more than just wins for the Bucks. It's about proving they're still title contenders – and showing Giannis they're worth his loyalty.