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Harris rises 1 point in HarrisX/Forbes poll

Posted on by Kennedy
Harris rises 1 point in HarrisX/Forbes poll

Topline

According to a new national HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris has a razor-thin one-point lead over former President Donald Trump, making it a statistically undecided race less than a week before Election Day — but one in 10 likely voters could change their mind.

Important facts

Among likely voters, Harris leads Trump 49-48%, with 2% supporting independent candidate Cornel West and 1% favoring the Green Party's Jill Stein – including voters who were unsure but leaning toward one candidate (the data includes people who voted early). .

That's similar to a HarrisX/Forbes poll a week earlier that found Trump leading 49% to 48%, including the leaners, but a closer race than Harris did shortly after the debate last month Trump led 52% to 48%, not including third parties.

Harris' lead is also 49-48% in the seven battleground states likely to determine the winner, compared to a Trump lead of 50-46% a week ago.

Even with just a few days left, there's still room for the race to shift: About 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters are still weighing their decisions, including 14% of voters in battleground states, three of them 10 independents and nearly a quarter of voters ages 18 to 34 and more than a fifth of black and Hispanic voters.

HarrisX surveyed 4,523 registered voters and 3,718 likely voters between Sunday and Tuesday, including about 910 in battleground states – the margin of error was about 1.5 percentage points.

Crucial quote

“The race is a statistical tie and it will be an election of sorts. Trump won the national vote, but Harris narrowly narrowed the race in battleground states. “Anything is possible, including Trump winning the national vote and Harris prevailing in the Electoral College, so the race remains difficult to decide from a polling perspective,” HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho said in an email to Forbes.

Another view

Important background

As Election Day approaches, the race between Trump and Harris is one of the closest in living memory. In the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Harris is ahead by 1.2 points, but Trump is narrowly in favor in most battleground states – albeit by single-digit margins that could easily change. In such a close race, voter turnout could prove crucial, with Harris leading among heavy voters while Trump has a large lead among so-called low-propensity voters. The race could also depend on racial shifts: The HarrisX/Forbes poll found Harris with a 10-point lead among Hispanic voters and a 47-point lead among black voters — far weaker numbers than President Joe Biden in 2020 — but Trump's 11-point lead among white voters is smaller than his lead in 2020. Trump's attempt to win over more Hispanic voters stalled on Sunday when a comedian at his rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash.” and sparked outcry from a number of well-known Puerto Ricans, although the impact on the race is unclear.

What you should pay attention to

The gender gap — Trump leads among men and Harris among women — remains a powerful force in the race. “The bottom line is that Trump needs to focus on women and Harris on men, where each has a 10-point lead over the other — one of the largest among demographic groups,” Nesho said.

tangent

Registered voters are slightly more likely to have a positive opinion of Harris (47%) than of Trump (45%), but both candidates are viewed negatively by more voters (48% for Harris, 51% for Trump) – which a clear sign of this is a polarized country. President Joe Biden's favorability now stands at just 38%, with 57% viewing him unfavorably.

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