Nearly 2 million votes have been cast in Ohio in the election so far

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – With less than a week until Election Day, early voting is exciting tens of thousands of Ohioans every day.

“I’m not shocked,” said Democratic strategist Brian Rothenberg. “I think that people here have made a choice in many ways. At this point there are only a limited number of undecided votes. But I think people on both sides are motivated.”

“I think a lot of people who just wanted to vote are getting it over with so they can turn off all the pollution on TV with all the commercials and say, 'I'm done with this,'” Republican strategist Terry Casey said.

According to the Secretary of State, nearly two million Ohioans have voted early in person or by absentee ballot so far.

But what does the high turnout of early voters mean?

“A large turnout doesn’t necessarily favor one side or the other,” Casey said. “It depends on what the different subgroups of voters are, how interested are they? How much are they true?”

“High turnout is always important for Democrats because they tend to vote early or Democratic-leaning voters, even the independents,” Rothenberg said. “What we don’t know about Republican early voting is how many of those early voters are people who traditionally vote on Election Day. So will Republican turnout be much lower on Election Day because more people are voting early?”

State data shows Republicans are outvoting Democrats so far. Nearly 600,000 of early voters are Republicans, while nearly 400,000 are Democrats.

“That’s really misleading,” Rothenberg said. “The highest rate of early voting currently comes from independent voters, who have cast nearly a million ballots so far.

“This time, compared to previous elections, and I look back many decades, the turnout (early voter turnout) is much higher and more balanced,” Casey said.

Rothenberg pointed out that a voter who misses two major primaries is automatically classified as unaffiliated. As a result, he said a large majority of unaffiliated voters are likely Democratic since the party hasn't had a significant primary since 2016.

“Many (independent voters) would normally have been classified as Democrats under the old system. Not all, but many,” he said.

In any case, Casey said he's not sure Democrats have as much enthusiasm as they need this year.

“If you compare this year to 2008 and 2012, when Barack Obama was running, I think the turnout and enthusiasm on the Democratic side was much higher than it is now,” he said.

Casey cites the year 2022 as an example.

“In 2022, the Democrats had a turnout problem and that's why their candidate for governor was not only defeated, but defeated by a big, big margin,” he said.

Will there be a record turnout? Strategists said it was difficult to predict at the moment.

“It could be a record turnout. “It’s hard to assess,” Casey said.

“I don’t know if there will be a record turnout. “I think there’s a good chance of that happening between the U.S. Senate race, Issue 1, and the presidential race,” Rothenberg said.

Strategists said the president's lead could play a big role in the highly anticipated and crucial U.S. Senate race between Republican businessman Bernie Moreno and incumbent Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

“Everyone agrees that Trump will win Ohio. The question is what the margin is,” Casey said. “If Trump wins Ohio by 8% or more, that will definitely help Bernie Moreno. If the margin in Ohio is somehow only 5% or 6%, that would help Sherrod.”

“If Trump actually wins, if the lead that Trump has is small, then that helps Sherrod Brown a lot,” Rothenberg said. “If the Trump vote is over 10% or very high, it will be harder for you to get enough crossover votes.”

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