El Niño is taking a back seat as a different winter weather pattern emerges

Despite persistent warm temperatures across much of the country and widespread drought, winter is approaching. Unlike recent El Niño-dominated years, a weak La Niña is forecast for this season, which is expected to influence rainfall patterns.

La Niña conditions are expected to develop this fall, leading to a more northerly storm track during the winter months and making the southern coast of the United States warmer and drier. La Niña is a weather pattern caused by cooler than average equatorial sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and is the opposite of El Niño. During a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream is pushed further north, resulting in wetter and colder weather due to frequent squalls from the northwest of the country across the Great Lakes. The East Coast is also affected by La Niña, and winter storm trains are bringing warmer air into major urban areas, where there is usually more ice and rain than snow.

This year's La Niña is expected to be weak – or even neutral – affecting the certainty of this forecast. When a La Niña event is stronger, seasonal predictions can be made with greater certainty.

Winter temperatures

Regional temperature patterns this winter will vary greatly between north and south. The U.S. Pacific Northwest will likely experience below-average temperatures with significant storm potential, while the northern Plains and upper Midwest should brace for alternating patterns of brief but severe cold snaps with periods of warmer weather between storm systems. Overall, temperatures are expected to be milder in the Northeastern United States, and above-average temperatures can be expected in the Southwest and Southern Plains. However, the Southeast, especially Florida, should be prepared for possible freeze risks throughout the winter.

Winter precipitation forecast

Similar to the temperature outlook, the precipitation outlook varies by region, with the potential for severe winter storms in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada as La Niña winters often bring an increased chance of atmospheric rivers in this area. These moisture-rich storms can lead to heavy rain and heavy snow, especially at higher elevations.

The Pacific Northwest, including Washington, Oregon and Northern California, may experience multiple atmospheric river events that could bring beneficial moisture but also increase the risk of flooding and landslides, particularly in areas with steep terrain. Above-average snowfall is also expected across the northern part of the country into the Upper Midwest as storms move through this area. At the same time, we will likely see a reduced snow pattern due to lake effects in the Great Lakes region, although short-lived cold spells could still trigger significant snow events. The Southwest is facing increasing drought and the Ohio-Tennessee Valley should watch for late-season severe weather risks.

Impact of winter weather on businesses and infrastructure

These weather conditions have a significant impact on several sectors, particularly the utilities industry. While above-average temperatures are expected in the Northeast and South, which will limit energy demand, short-lived but intense cold spells could lead to spikes in demand. While the best opportunities are in the Midwest, this could even briefly expand to the South and East.

In addition to managing demand, the potential for severe storms in the Pacific Northwest could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to power outages that utilities must be prepared to handle.

The transportation industry across the country could face a variety of challenges, from heavy snowfall in the Northwest to expected more frequent winter weather events across the Upper Midwest. This could lead to a combination of more road closures, dangerous driving conditions and increased use of chemicals and salt. Truck routes in these areas may be frequently disrupted.

Regarding air travel, colder temperatures and increasing snowfall from the Pacific Northwest across the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes could lead to flight delays and cancellations due to icy runways, poor visibility and de-icing requirements. Warmer and drier conditions in the southern U.S. could lead to fewer winter weather disruptions and potentially provide relief to southern airports.

Access to real-time weather information will be critical for businesses this winter due to La Niña's impact on transportation, supply chains and infrastructure. Timely updates enable proactive decision-making, minimizing risks from storms, snow, flooding and temperature fluctuations across the U.S., and ultimately keeping people safer and businesses operating more efficiently.