San Diego State vs. Boise State Predictions, Tips and Best Bets – College Football Week 10

Ashton Jeanty looks to bolster his Heisman campaign as the Boise State Broncos playoff favorite with a home game against the San Diego State Aztecs tonight.

The Broncos are red hot with five straight wins, including last week's 29-24 road win over UNLV, but they can't discount a feisty Aztecs team that is 2-0 in Mountain West play.

Find out why my San Diego State vs. Boise State predictions have the Aztecs staying tough in my college football picks for Friday, November 1st, which also includes a backup from Ashton Jeanty.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium in Boise and the game will be broadcast on FS1. Also, check out our favorite San Diego State vs. Boise State props!

Prediction and best bet for San Diego State vs. Boise State

My best choice
San Diego State +23.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

This isn't a great spot for the Boise State Broncos as it represents an opportunity for disappointment after their massive win over UNLV last week. The Broncos are on a roll with five straight wins and could certainly contend for a playoff spot the way things are going, but that's a lot of points to take against a San Diego State Aztecs team that plays pretty good football.

If the Broncos want to be a playoff team, they need to improve some things on the defensive side of the ball. They rank just 103rd in EPA per play and 125th in explosiveness and struggle to defend the run (116th in EPA per rush, 128th in rushing explosiveness) while having too many Allow big passing plays (104th in pass explosiveness).

They played pretty well on that side of the ball, holding the Rebels to 23 points, but I'll have to watch it every week before I'm convinced. It makes sense for the coaching staff to formulate an effective game plan in its biggest test of the regular season, but an exit from a period of disappointment could always be imminent.

The Aztecs would have a bad first year of the Sean Lewis era. That simply hasn't been the case as they are in the bowl hunt and are 2-0 in conference play.

The defense has been on point, holding each of their last three opponents to under 385 total yards. It only allowed one opponent to gain more than 5.5 yards per play all year, so the hope is that SDSU can at least slow down a terrific Boise offense.

The Aztecs should be able to fill the box to bolster the rush defense. The secondary was outstanding (20th in pass percentage, 29th in PFF coverage grade) and should compete well with a Boise receiving group that was simply adequate. Target Cam Camper was limped last week and therefore likely won't be 100% fit for this contest, meaning the Broncos' two best playmakers will be playing injured (more on Ashton Jeanty in a moment).

Give me the points. SDSU typically plays in close games, as each of its last four games have been decided by three points or fewer.

Ashton Jeanty's selection: Elbow massage

My best choice
Under 186.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

My analysis

One of the takeaways from the Broncos' win over UNLV a week ago is that Ashton Jeanty injured his elbow and visibly played less than 100% for the remainder of the contest.

It's an injury that shouldn't be overlooked or underplayed, as it neutralized one of his best weapons, the stiff arm, and he averaged a season-low 3.9 yards per carry on 33 mostly ineffective rush attempts.

I'll take his under against an Aztecs defense that played well.

Same parlay between San Diego State and Boise State (SGP)

San Diego State +22.5

Ja'Shaun Poke for 44.5 yards

Matt Lauter Over 44.5 yards

If you've followed Lewis teams for a while, you know that his WR1 usually puts up some crazy stat lines. That wasn't the case in his first year in San Diego as he struggled in the passing attack with a true freshman quarterback, but that's starting to change.

Slot receiver Ja'Shaun Poke, who accompanied Lewis at a previous stop at Kent State, has proven to be a reliable weapon. The speedster leads the Aztecs in targets (21), receptions (18) and receiving yards (140) over the last two games, and yet his receiving yardage average is in the low 40s.

No Boise wide receiver has 160 receiving yards other than volume hog Cam Camper (477). A week ago he was visibly hampered, playing just 13 passing snaps and scoring three times in the Broncos' biggest game of the season so far. Who will step in in his absence?

It's tight end Matt Lauter, who was the second target in the passing game with 297 yards and four touchdowns. He led the team with nine targets against UNLV, six more than any other receiver on the team. That volume will carry over, and his receiving yardage requirement is just too low.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

San Diego State vs Boise State odds

San Diego State vs Boise State live odds

San Diego State vs. Boise State opening odds

• Distribution between San Diego State and Boise State: Boise State -23.5
• Money line San Diego State vs. Boise State: San Diego State +1,100, Boise State -2,500
• San Diego State vs. Boise State Over/Under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

San Diego State vs. Boise State distribution and over/under analysis

• San Diego State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two schools.
• The Aztecs have been road warriors, covering the lead in five of their last six road games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
• Boise State has played to the over and is 8-2 O/U in its last 10 games.

San Diego State vs Boise State betting trend worth knowing

The Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Find more college football betting trends for San Diego State vs. Boise State.

Information about the game San Diego State vs. Boise State

San Diego State's recent injuries vs. Boise State

Weather San Diego State vs. Boise State

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