Here's why Trump is likely to win in the tiebreaker

Topline

With less than a week to go before Election Day, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in national polls and the seven swing states — but there's a slim chance there could be a tie between the two candidates in the Electoral College In the rare event that such a thing occurs, it would likely result in Trump becoming president.

Important facts

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Is a draw likely?

A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College is considered highly unlikely – Five Thirty Eight predicts a 1 in 300 chance. There are several scenarios that could result in a tie, such as if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020, excluding Michigan and Pennsylvania, or if Harris defeats North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. There would also be a tie if Harris wins the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Trump wins the other four swing states as well as Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha and typically votes Democratic while the rest of the state is reliably red.

What you should pay attention to

The election could also become “contingent” if a third-party candidate wins the electoral vote and neither Trump nor Harris reaches the 270-vote threshold to win. According to polls, it is nearly impossible for voters in any state to assign electors to a third-party candidate, but about half of states do not legally require their electors to vote for their chosen elector candidates, meaning if Trump and Harris each win 269 electors, some could go rogue and select a third-party candidate who would then be in the running for the House vote. “Believing voters” are rare but not unprecedented — in the 2016 election, five who pledged to Hillary Clinton and two who pledged to Trump voted for other candidates.

Big number

94. This is the number of electoral votes available in the seven swing states and Nebraska's 2nd District. If, as expected, Harris wins all of the non-swing states Biden won in 2020, she would have 225 electoral votes while Trump would have 219.

Has there ever been a tie in the Electoral College?

There hasn't been a tie in the Electoral College since 1800, in the race between former President Thomas Jefferson and incumbent President John Adams, when Congress needed 36 ballots to elect Jefferson. In 1824, several candidates won the electoral votes, with Andrew Jackson receiving most but not a majority. The House of Representatives elected John Quincy Adams instead.

Important background

Each state is assigned a total number of electors equal to its representation in the House and Senate, while the District of Columbia has three, for a total of 538. State political parties are tasked with nominating electors, typically at their state conventions. The Constitution prohibits federal government employees and federally elected officials from serving as electors; The individuals are typically well-known political figures, such as elected state and local officials. Electors are “obligated” but not required to vote for their state's winning candidate, although some states penalize “faithless electors” who defect and vote for another candidate. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not use a winner-takes-all approach to allocating electors, but instead allocate them using a partially proportional system. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is considered critically important in closely contested elections like this one, as it would give Harris exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all the states Biden won, plus the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan , which is considered to be the clearest path to victory.

Further reading

These Demographics Could Decide the Trump-Harris Race in the 7 Battleground States (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Trump is in the Sun Belt, Harris is in the north – and Pennsylvania is razor thin (latest update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris leads by 2 points in new poll as pre-election polls tighten (Forbes)