Poll of likely voters in Georgia, North Carolina finds Trump and Harris nearly tied

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the key battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, according to two new CNN polls from SSRS.

In Georgia, Trump leads Harris 48% to 47% among likely voters, while the results are reversed in North Carolina, where Harris leads Trump 48% to 47%. The results are within the margin of error in both states.

Trump has won North Carolina twice, in 2016 by almost four percentage points and in 2020 by just over one point. In the last 20 years, former President Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win North Carolina, doing so in 2008 by less than half a point. The Tar Heel State has 16 electoral votes.

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Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Wednesday. Vice President Harris is leading North Carolina at 48%, ahead of Trump at 47%, according to a new CNN/SSRS poll. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Trump held a rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Wednesday afternoon, while Harris made her case in Raleigh, North Carolina's capital, emphasizing how important that state will be in deciding who the next president is. Trump's vice presidential running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, is in North Carolina today to attend a “Generation Z town hall.”

The CNN/SSRS North Carolina poll comes after a Fox News poll showed Trump leading among likely voters 49% to 47%, while third-party candidates received 4%. The previous Fox News poll of North Carolina voters, released in September, also showed Trump narrowly ahead among likely voters and Harris narrowly ahead among registered voters.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted last week by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia found Trump has 47% support in the state, compared to 43% for Harris. The Peach State also has 16 electoral votes.

President Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia in 2020, becoming the first Democrat in nearly 30 years to win the state in a race for the White House, since former President Bill Clinton in 1992.

The CNN/SSRS polls released Thursday found that an overwhelming 95% of likely voters in every state now say they have made up their minds, with more than half of likely voters in both Georgia (59%) and Those in North Carolina (52%) say they have already voted.

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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the key battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, according to two new CNN polls from SSRS. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

According to CNN/SSRS polls, Harris has a seven-point lead in Georgia among those who have already voted, and she is six points ahead of them in North Carolina.

About two-thirds of Harris supporters in both states say they overwhelmingly vote for Harris rather than against Trump.

Larger majorities of Trump voters in both states — 81% in Georgia and 75% in North Carolina — say their vote is primarily about supporting the former president rather than opposing Harris.

In North Carolina, Trump is ahead by seven points among men and Harris is ahead by nine points among women. In Georgia, men prefer Trump by the same majority, but women are more evenly split (49% prefer Harris, 47% Trump).

Harris also leads by a wide margin among likely black voters in both states, 84% to 13% in Georgia and 78% to 19% in North Carolina. The vice president also leads among college-educated voters, 55% to 39% in Georgia and 53% to 42% in North Carolina, the CNN/SSRS polls showed.

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A man fills out a ballot at a voting booth in Mt. Gilead, North Carolina, on May 17, 2022. (Getty Images)

The number of white college graduates is roughly evenly split in both states: 50% for Harris compared to 47% for Trump in North Carolina and 48% for Trump in Georgia compared to Harris' 46%. Among white voters without a college degree in Georgia, Trump leads by a wide margin, 81% to 15%. In North Carolina, he leads that group by a less overwhelming margin of 65% to 31%.

The White House's response to Hurricane Helene is trending poorly: 42% of likely voters in Georgia approved of its response, but only 36% of respondents in North Carolina said they liked the way the Biden administration did dealt with the disaster.

In the race for North Carolina governor, Democrat Josh Stein has a sizable lead among likely voters over Republican Mark Robinson (53% to 37%).

The polls were conducted online and by telephone Oct. 23-28, surveying 732 voters in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina. The margin of error among likely voters is 4.7% in both states.

Fox News' Dana Blanton and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.