A key to the Guardians' second game: Deciphering Gerrit Cole

Grady Sizemore's leadoff home run in New York, the Midges, Joba Chamberlain's career-changing upset in Cleveland, the 12 runs Chien-Ming Wang scored in two games. The 2007 ALDS was unforgettable and you won't find a Cleveland fan who will forget it.

That was also in 2007.

Since then there have been three attempts and three ugly defeats. That's how it should be, right? The underdog can only be the underdog if he loses long enough, but when exactly will that be enough? In 2017, a blown 2-0 lead in the ALDS marked a heartbreaking end to a record-breaking season. In 2020, Brad Hand gave away the season to DJ LeMahieu. In 2022, despite valiant efforts, Aaron Civale's disastrous start in Game 5 of the ALDS once again spelled doom for the Guardians. 2024 will be the seventh time Cleveland will see the Yankees in a playoff series. The Yankees have won four of the last six.

In the last two losses, Gerrit Cole was the face of doom that awaited Cleveland. In many ways, Gerrit Cole represents what the Guardians do not. The wealthy coastal elite from California, resettled in New York, raised Yankee fanatics. If you remove José Ramírez or Andrés Giménez's contracts from next season's payroll, Cole will make more money than the Guardians' currently structured 2025 roster, ownership aside combined. He is the opposite of what Cleveland represents, and for the city of Cleveland, he is the face of the New York Yankees in October.

As a Yankee, Gerrit Cole faced Cleveland seven times in the regular season. Cole has a career ERA of 2.84 against Cleveland in those starts. The Guardians' hitters are swinging under the Mendoza Line against the one-time Cy Young winner, posting an OPS of .596. In fact, Cole has failed to pitch at least six innings while allowing more than two runs just once, and the Yankees are 6-1 in those seven starts.

Things got even worse for the Guardians in the postseason. In 2020, Cole went six innings in Cleveland, allowing two runs and striking out 13 in a blowout Yankees win. In the 2022 Division Series, he went a perfect 2-0 against the Guardians, allowing just three runs over 13.1 innings with 16 strikeouts.

Yes, the Guardians are dealing with Tarik Skubal in the fifth game after it looked like they couldn't even get to him in the final series, but Gerrit Cole represents something mental for this Guardians team. The core of this team has seen nothing but defeats at the hands of Cole in years. Of the nine players who participated in regular season at-bats against Cole, only José Ramírez has a track record against him, hitting .391 with two home runs in 30 plate appearances. The only other players with averages even at or above the .200 mark? Will Brennan (2-8) and Austin Hedges (1-5).

After a miserable performance in the first game, things don't seem to be in favor of the Guardians in New York in the second game, and facing Cole feels daunting. However, if the Guardians want to push this series to Cleveland with home field advantage flipped instead of on the verge of being swept, they will need to attack Cole's fastball and cutter. Historically, that hasn't been the right way for Cleveland to go after Cole. In the aforementioned seven starts, Guardians hitters hit just .182 against his heater.

However, Cole's fastball usage this season is at just 45.3%, the lowest it has ever been as a Yankee, and his cutter usage has more than doubled from last season to 15.8%. Cole has seen a slight drop in velocity this season, but the induced vertical break on his already elite fastball has actually improved slightly. That being said, Cole has already faced this Guardians lineup once this season, and while he was all over the place with five walks, he only allowed one hit in six innings and didn't give up a run. He only threw eight changeups, all to left-handed batters, sticking mostly to his heater, ankle curve and slider.

Cleveland never really created chances against Cole the further out he went, and despite his inaccuracy in the zone, they didn't really get him going either. He stuck almost exclusively to the heater, his ankle curve and the slider.

Given the struggles of the lefties in Cleveland's lineup throughout the postseason with the exception of Steven Kwan, particularly Josh Naylor, who is in the worst slump we've seen from him in his time in Cleveland, the right-handed bats are counted on to help out and to produce, especially Lane Thomas and possibly David Fry, he should go first. The weakness of this lineup is the change. Cole doesn't throw his offspeed batters to right-handers and only throws them four changeups all season. The right-hander also had success against Cole's fastball, posting a .607 slugging percentage with a .268 batting average. Of the balls put into play by right-handed hitters against Cole's fastball, 14% were thrown balls, the most of any of his pitches. However, the left-handed hitters fared very differently, posting a .146 average and a .233 SLG. The run rate of 14% of all balls in play drops to just 4.9% for left-handers.

These reversed divisions bring the usual Guardians roster to a bit of a crossroads. Start with Will Brennan, a hitter who has had major issues with velocity and increasing heat in the past, or start with Jhonkensy Noel, who has a ton and has struggled majorly not just this postseason but really since mid-August , which also provides more pop. On which side have the batsmen fared better against Cole this season? I think you like Noel.

David Fry struggles against right-handed pitchers compared to his dominance against lefties, especially cutters, but he still hits over .400 against fastballs and sliders from right-handers. However, until this postseason, he's rarely been seen pitching in volume as a right-handed hitter, and that's largely because Vogt wants Fry's bat in the lineup at all times and has opted to use Manzardo elsewhere in the order.

That brings me to my next point. Are we at the point where the emotional Manzardo/Naylor talks after Game One may have reached a point of sanity? Maybe it's just us. Manzardo clearly outplayed Naylor down the stretch, and if you assume it was just because Manzardo saw right-handed pitching, that's not the case. After being called up in September, Manzardo posted a wRC+ of 146 against righties, 65 percent better than Naylor's 81. I understand that Josh will never see a day outside of this lineup as long as he wears a Guardians jersey, but the best chance is with this team The player who needs to win may just be Kyle Manzardo at first base.

Additionally, Manzardo has proven to be a better hitter against fastballs with an induced vertical break of 17 inches or more, posting a .750 average and 1,500 SLG against them in September, while Naylor has hit just .186 with a .333 SLG. Heck, the sample size is small, Josh Naylor was one of the two worst bats in the lineup throughout the playoffs. While a move is unlikely, it could be beneficial for Cole.

It has been 17 long years since Cleveland defeated the Yankees in the postseason, and since then there have been three failed attempts to recapture that glory. A major turning point in this franchise's attempt to slay the dragon comes in the second game. It's time to see who is ready to take on this challenge.