A November hurricane moves into the Gulf of Mexico

This is the Anthony's Weather Lab newsletter that debuted last week. You can register here.

It's Monday, and although this newsletter is normally sent out on Tuesday, due to the tropics, I'm arriving in your inboxes a day early.

History is on our side:

In a hurricane season full of oddities, it's perhaps no surprise that a November storm is now heading toward the Gulf of Mexico. Of course, if the Hurricane Center's cone includes southeast Texas, our concerns increase. The good news is that history is on our side: Houston hasn't been hit by a November storm since records began. (The last storm to hit us was Category 1 Hurricane Jerry on October 15, 1991.) However, we must continue to monitor this storm closely. Here are my thoughts.

Strong Gulf storms in November are rare:

Hurricane season officially runs through November 30th, so it's not entirely surprising that we're still seeing storms. Slightly rarer, however, is tracking a hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico – which is likely to happen soon with the name Hurricane Rafael. The last November hurricane in the Gulf occurred in 1985. Hurricane Kate reached Category 3 major hurricane status in the Gulf before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle on November 21 as a Category 2 storm. We haven't seen a November hurricane in the Gulf since Kate, which was almost 40 years ago.

Is there a chance the storm could come to Houston?

In my experience, you never say never. The weather can humble even the most experienced meteorologists, but there are a few factors that work in our favor. First, Rafael is expected to reach hurricane status within the next 48 hours and could briefly strengthen into a severe Category 3 storm as it moves into the Gulf. Waters in the Caribbean are still very warm and wind shear remains low, which could initially strengthen the storm. However, as Rafael enters the Gulf, it will experience stronger wind shear and cooler water, which should help weaken it. The red color indicates strong winds.

Historically, one of the main reasons we don't see storms in our region after October 15th is due to falling cold fronts. And luckily we have another front moving in on Tuesday. This front will come to a standstill near the coast and form a blockade that will prevent Rafael from heading directly towards us. My only concern is that this front will not last past Thursday, which could lead to a slight opening. High pressure in the Atlantic pushes Rafael into the central Gulf of Mexico. The Storm Tracker 2 team will be watching this closely for you.

Where Rafael should land:

Wind shear appears to be the primary controlling factor for this storm. Once it encounters this shear, it should begin to shift eastward. Gulf water temperatures are also playing a role, with the path of least resistance currently pointing toward Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

An interesting twist comes from the European model, which projects a possible path to Mexico. On the map below, you can see that the blue area represents the possibility of the rain moving across the southern Gulf. Although this is an outlier, it remains possible if high pressure in the Atlantic loses its influence as the storm moves into the Gulf.

This may not be our last November Gulf storm. As we watch Rafael move toward land (you can see the model for Saturday below), another low is currently moving east of Florida toward the Sunshine State and could make an impact next week.

My next newsletter is scheduled for Friday, but if there are significant developments in the tropics I'll be back in your inbox sooner.

Until then, we'll keep you updated online at click2houston.com, on TV and through the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker app, which you can download for free on your phone.