“A red wave” is sweeping across Florida, Ohio and Iowa

Looking at the seven swing states in the 2024 US election, the Democratic Party, represented by Kamala Harris, appears to have gained an advantage due to population migration and the increasing number of minority voters. However, this is not entirely the case.

A look back at the most recent US elections shows that Florida (30 electoral votes), Ohio (17) and Iowa (6) were all traditional swing states, neither consistently blue nor red. But in this year's election, all three states leaned heavily toward the Republican Party and turned into “red states.”

Does this “Red Wave” have anything to do with Trump’s “charisma”?

Florida is becoming Trump's stronghold

This shift is closely related to population migration. Since 1996, Florida has been one of the most important swing states in every presidential election. With its large population, Florida has about 30 electoral votes – 11 more than Pennsylvania, the largest swing state this year. From 1996 to 2016, the candidate who won Florida also won the presidency, making the phrase “Whoever wins Florida wins the White House” quite apt.

Because of Florida's importance, both the Democratic and Republican parties have invested heavily in campaign resources there. In the last seven elections, the vote gap between the two parties in Florida has never exceeded 5%.

However, Florida has rapidly become a “red state” in recent years. In the 2022 midterm elections, Republican Ron DeSantis won re-election as governor by nearly 20%, marking the largest margin of victory in state history. In the Senate race, Republican Marco Rubio won by nearly 17%, and Republicans won 20 of Florida's 28 congressional districts.

In the current poll for the 2024 election, Trump has a lead of around 5% over Harris in Florida, which is beyond the margin of error.

This drastic change started in 2020. Do you remember what happened in 2020?

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out and states responded with varying degrees of restrictions. Florida's pandemic policy has been one of the loosest in the United States. Florida was among the last states to impose a lockdown, and after just a few weeks, Governor DeSantis declared the state “open,” a stark contrast to the stricter lockdowns in states like California and New York.

Although Florida's more lenient policies resulted in a higher death toll compared to California and New York, many residents who disagreed with the lockdowns and wanted to return to normal life chose to move to Florida. Because opposition to lockdowns aligned with Republican views, many of those who immigrated to Florida were Republican-leaning voters, resulting in a shift in the state's demographic makeup from a nearly 50-50 Democrat-Republican ratio to more Republican shaped state.

A study by Vox pointed out that of people who moved to Florida after 2020, 45% identified as Republicans, compared to just 24% who identified as Democrats.

In addition to pandemic migration, Florida's proximity to Mexico and the Caribbean has led to an increase in minority voters. In 2023, nearly 30% of Florida voters were Latino. While minority voters in the U.S. generally lean Democratic, Florida's Latino voters have disproportionately supported Trump, bucking the national trend.

The main reason for this is Trump's messaging strategy.

Many of Florida's Latin American immigrants come from socialist countries such as Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. With the Democratic Party traditionally more left-leaning, Trump cleverly labeled Biden and Harris “socialists” and “communists,” sparking fears among those voters about the possibility of the same kind of government they had fled.

These voters would rather support Trump, described as the “most anti-immigrant” president in recent years, than vote for “Marxists” like Harris. As a result, both minority voters and pandemic migrants have turned to the Republican Party, making Florida an undeniable “red state.”

Ohio and Iowa: “Red Waves”

Unlike Florida, where population migration led to a “red shift,” Ohio and Iowa have leaned Republican due to “exodus” – the loss of young people leaving those states.

Ohio, located in the Rust Belt, and Iowa, once known as the “Most Swing Farm State,” have been key battlegrounds in previous elections, with both Democrats and Republicans contesting. Like Florida, Ohio was seen as an indicator of the national election outcome. From 2000 to 2016, the winner, Ohio, also won the presidency.

However, with the rapid urbanization of the United States, Ohio, once a center of steel production, became less attractive to young people. Many young Ohioans have moved to emerging metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, North Carolina, Arizona and other Sunbelt cities.

Iowa faces a similar situation. As the second-largest soybean-producing state in the United States, its agricultural economy can no longer retain young people and many are choosing to leave the country.

Statistics show that 34.2% of young people in Iowa leave the state after graduating from college, making them one of the top 10 states with the highest graduate exodus. In contrast, Illinois, home to Chicago, has a net inflow of college graduates of 20%, while Minnesota has a net inflow of 8%.

As young people leave, Ohio and Iowa leave behind an older, less educated population. Because the Republican Party's values ​​and political stance tend to appeal to older and less educated voters, while the Democratic Party's base tends to be younger, these two states have increasingly become strongholds of the Republican Party.

Polls show Trump leading Harris by over 8% in Ohio and over 5% in Iowa.

Aging populations

Many countries around the world are facing the threat of low birth rates and an aging population, and the United States is no exception. According to the Pew Research Center, about 18% of the U.S. population is over 65 years old, classifying the country as an “aging population.” It is projected that by 2054, 23% of the U.S. population will be over 65 years old, making the U.S. an “aging” society.

This aging trend could begin to benefit the Republican Party, as older voters tend to lean more conservative. If the Democratic Party cannot change its political stance, future elections could become increasingly difficult for it.

The 2028 focus: Texas

Will the political situation continue to disadvantage the Democratic Party? Not necessarily. While the Republican Party has successfully consolidated its strongholds in several former swing states due to migration and aging trends, its own largest stronghold – Texas – is slowly being forgotten.

With 40 electoral votes, Texas has been a Republican stronghold since 1980, and the state's electoral votes have been reliably cast for the Republican candidate in every election. Texas has been key to maintaining the Republican Party's competitiveness in every presidential election. But while Republicans are still winning handily in Texas, the lead has steadily shrunk.

In 2000 and 2004, Republican candidates won Texas by more than 20%. By 2016, the lead had shrunk to less than 10%, and in 2020, Trump won by just 5.5%. In this year's election, Trump's lead remains around 5%. If this trend continues through 2028 or later, Texas could transform from a deep red state to a swing state.

The main driver of this change is population migration.

Major cities in Texas such as Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin have experienced rapid urban development in recent years and attracted large numbers of young people. Additionally, Texas has lower taxes compared to Democratic-led states like California and New York, which encourages voters from these deep blue states to move to Texas.

Additionally, Texas, located on the U.S.-Mexico border, has inevitably experienced a large influx of Latin American immigrants in recent years. These factors are accelerating Texas' transformation into a swing state. The Republican Party has clearly recognized the risk and, in response, has announced that the 2028 Republican National Convention will be held in Houston, Texas, five years earlier than planned.

As migration, immigration and aging trends continue in the United States, the country's political landscape is becoming increasingly volatile. The only “stable” thing about the future of U.S. politics may be its “instability.”

Only time will tell whether the Democratic Party will turn Texas blue first or whether the Republican Party will expand its influence into additional swing states.

READ MORE: Harris is not Biden 2.0: the EU will welcome her possible victory

TNL Editor: Kim Chan (@thenewslensintl)

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