Analysis of the 2024 election exit poll: abortion

Battlegrounds Arizona and Nevada were among 10 states where abortion was on the ballot Tuesday.

Some strategists suggested this would boost turnout among the majority of voters who support legal abortion, thereby helping Democratic candidates.

Not so fast: According to an analysis of abortion polls, attitudes toward abortion were not as one-sided as they might have seemed.

Donald Trump's approach, focusing on states' rights, appeared to resonate with voters who did not see abortion access as incompatible with a Trump presidency. In Arizona, 23% of those who voted “yes” to the state’s initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution also voted for Trump. In Nevada, where another abortion rights measure passed, 25% of “yes” voters also favored Trump.

This followed at the national level. Of the two-thirds of voters who said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 28% voted for Trump; This included 30% in Arizona, 32% in Nevada and 36% in Florida.

Supporters of legal abortion still spoke strongly in favor of Harris. But the partisan elasticity on this issue did not work to both sides. Because Harris made abortion access a central focus of her campaign, she won just 9% of voters who said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

In Arizona, for example, anti-abortion voters made up 31% of the electorate – and supported Trump 95-5%.