Austin Wells' slump comes at the worst possible time for the Yankees

Austin Wells of the New York Yankees has had a solid rookie season overall. He will likely finish in the top three of the American League Rookie of the Year race. However, he struggled greatly at the end of the regular season, which lasted well into the postseason. Wells hit a brutal .105/.171/.184 (0 wRC+) and struck out over 40% of the time in the postseason. His emergence as an above-average hitter during the regular season was a major boost to the Yankees' lineup. But now his offensive woes are part of a theme this postseason, with a lack of offensive production from catchers.

Austin Wells' ongoing slump comes at the worst time for the Yankees

Lack of hits from catchers

Dealing with an entire pitching staff and understanding advanced scouting reports on the opposing team's hitters are obviously key elements of the catcher position. In addition, catchers must prepare accordingly as hitters. Given the top-notch defensive value of catchers, it may be understandable that they perform less offensively. Additionally, offense overall tends to decline in the postseason as the best pitchers on the best teams get the majority of the work. However, catchers are scoring far less than the lower level overall in the postseason.

Postseason Overall: Offense down 14%
Catchers in the postseason: Offense down 38%

(Last 10 postseasons, WRC+ by @fangraphs) https://t.co/h92YQqfTiy

– Eno Sarris (@enosarris) October 18, 2024

Catchers have consistently been hitting around 10% worse than the league average for several years. MLB teams are willing to give up some offensive production at some defensive positions. Traditionally, these positions are all in the middle: center field, shortstop and catcher. Shortstop has seen a revolution in the last decade with the influx of talent. However, offensive performance was difficult for catchers and center fielders. Yes, offensive performance has been declining across the league in recent years as pitching has dominated. However, the lowest OBP numbers have been at center field over the last decade as teams look to get younger and more athletic at that position.

The increase in bullpen games in recent years could also be a contributing factor. Teams are wary of using a bullpen game too early in a playoff series to risk a reliever seeing a batter for the third time. This may reflect a similar effect experienced by a starting pitcher in a start. Ultimately, catchers will have to make even more extensive preparations in the postseason, and creating plans for each replacement player can be stressful. Wells was outstanding behind the plate, recording the sixth-most defensive runs saved at the position. He is considered one of the best framers in baseball and well above average as a blocker.

Disciplined approach

Early in the season, watching Austin Wells, it was clear that he had a good eye and control over the strike zone. He managed to maintain this discipline while achieving subpar results. During the first half of the regular season, he was one of 16 players to walk more than 11% of the time and post an above-average strikeout rate. The group's average OPS was .829, but Wells fell short with an OPS of .687.

Wells performed excellently on many process statistics and did well on contact quality, but the results weren't there yet. After the All-Star break, he had a longer season with an OPS of .949 through the end of August. He maintained his disciplined approach and ran the ball up more often. This came during a crucial period when slugger Giancarlo Stanton was injured. Wells spent much of that time in the cleanup position behind Aaron Judge and hit nearly half of his season home runs from the four-hole.

However, when the calendar turned to September, Wells became ice cold. It's not like his strikeout rate just went up and that explains all of his problems. The rate was just 23.9%, but his BABIP dropped to a dismal .161. Perhaps it can be called an unlucky month and he could shake it off in October. Not quite.

October obstacle

Strikeout rate wasn't the issue during the September slump, but was a major factor in October. Wells' strikeout rate this month is over 40%, which is completely unsustainable. While the contacts were far more sparse, Wells is at least maximizing the contacts made and posting better hard-hit numbers than in the regular season. He simply won't be rewarded with an even more dismal .150 BABIP. Here are some of his regular season numbers compared to the postseason:

Things like this can happen to a young hitter in his first taste of the postseason. Was it also mentioned that he is a rookie catcher? It's been a frustrating stretch for Austin Wells, but his offensive woes shouldn't take away from the work he's done with the pitching staff in the postseason. Although it's been a difficult two months, there are better days ahead for the AL Rookie of the Year.

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