Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan, Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State college football picks

Tuesday marks a crucial turning point in American society – MACtion has returned during the week!

In this article, I'll break down Tuesday's two MAC football games and my best bets.

Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Prediction

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

The hits keep coming for Central Michigan, which lost starting quarterback Joe Labas and backup quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr.

Tyler Jefferson, a three-star sophomore from Lake City, Fla., started last week. He completed just 7 of 17 passes for 62 yards, with a terrible 41.2% completion rate and 3.6 yards per attempt.

The Chippewas' offense struggled all season, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in points per drive and third-down success rate despite ranking 128th.

Bowling Green may have the best defense in the MAC this season, ranking 17th in EPA per pass allowed and 23rd in third-down success rate allowed.

Central Michigan will likely look to establish the run against a more prone Bowling Green run defense, but the Chippewas rank just 110th in Pro Football Focus' run-blocking rating.

With Jefferson failing to provide a dangerous passing threat, the Falcons can load the box on early downs and force the Chippewas into third-and-long situations.

Keep an eye on the weather forecast as wind could also play a role. Early concerns resulted in the overall play count dropping from 53.5 to 48.5.

Regardless, I'm interested in softening Central Michigan's offense on Tuesday night.

Pick: Central Michigan team under 17.5 overall (-138, FanDuel)

Miami (OH) vs. Ball State Prediction

(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

After a 1-4 start, Miami (OH) now looks like the team we expected this year. It won three straight games by an average of 24 points while covering the spread by more than 19 points per game.

Sixth-year senior quarterback Brett Gabbert has eight touchdowns and no interceptions in that span, and he should be able to maintain his hot streak against a Ball State defense that ranks 131st nationally in PFF coverage grade lies.

Miami (OH) should also have a lot of success running the ball, as Ball State ranks 123rd in EPA in rush allowed.

Betting on college football?

Keyon Mozee and Jordan Brunson are averaging over six yards per carry for the RedHawks this season, and if the current forecast of 20+ mph winds holds true, we should see a run-heavy game script for Miami.

Ball State's offense will also likely struggle to gain traction. The Cardinals rank 104th in early down offense EPA per play, while the RedHawks rank 26th defensively. Miami ranks 27th in defensive yards per play and has held its last three conference opponents to an average of 3.7 yards per play.

I expect Miami's dominant conference play to continue against an overmatched Ball State team. Still, I'll wait to see if the market is interested in supporting the domestic underdog.

I'd like to get a -10 or better for the RedHawks here.

Pick: Lean Miami -10 or better (-140, DraftKings)