Broncos-Saints betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

After 16 seasons at the helm New Orleans SaintsSean Payton returns to the city where he brought a Super Bowl, this time in new colors. Emotions will be running high in the Superdome as both teams are coming off tough home losses in Week 6.

New Orleans suffered four straight losses due to a series of injuries after starting the year with two big wins. The Saints finished September with a 3-1 record against the team, but have since lost both games in October, including a loss last week as 3.5-point home underdogs.

Injuries to key players have left the Saints behind the eight-ball offensively in a short week. The lack of a quarterback Derek Carr extended for another week, with first graders Spencer Rattler The plan is to start under center again. This time he will be without top targets Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee surgery). There are also numerous injuries along the offensive line, including guard/center Lucas Patrick (chest; questionable) and Cesar Ruiz (Knee; eliminated) Both missed last week and are still dealing with issues coming into this competition.

Defensive issues have plagued New Orleans lately, with the offense ranking last in the team's pass blocking rating (34.7) over the last four games. They have given up the fifth-most pressures (78) in that span, and while much of that can be attributed to the offensive line, Rattler is partly responsible for the team's 37.5% pressure rate allowed last week. The rookie passer was accounted for 23% of the team's pressures in his debut.

That could prove to be a glaring problem in this match. The Broncos' defense has played at a high level in recent weeks and, despite some issues in Week 6, holds the NFL's highest defensive grade (85.7) starting in Week 3.

Denver has found success passing, maintaining a strong coverage game and an opportunistic pass rush. Over the last four games, this defense has generated the most pressure (93) in the NFL to match the league's best team coverage grade (90.1). However, they will have to make do without a star cornerback this week Pat Surtain II (Concussion).

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-113) – variable PFF greenline edge

There's been a lot of talk this season about the Broncos' ineffectiveness on the ground, with the team ranking in the bottom third of the league per rush per EPA Bo Nix currently holds the team's best rushing grade (76.6).

As a lead back, Williams started the year uninspired but has found limited momentum since then, surpassing that ceiling in two of his last three games. Despite a poor performance last week, Williams has posted five explosive runs and 11 forced missed tackles since Week 4, both of which rank in the top eight at the position.

There's no doubt that the Broncos' offense needs a constant presence on the ground. This matchup can go a long way toward determining that. One of the Saints' glaring problems after their four-game exit was that they struggled to get on the run. During that span, their defense ranked 30th in EPA allowed per rush and ranked last in team run defense rating (40.5). As a result, four defenders have been able to exceed this limit in the last three games.

TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints: Over 26.5 receiving yards (-114) – variable PFF Greenline edge

As we've already established, this isn't a positive play for New Orleans' passing game. The Saints are dealing with a broken offensive line and receiving corps while also fielding a rookie quarterback. That's hard to do on a good day, but against an attacking unit like the Broncos' defense? It could be a long game.

Klint Kubiak will want to incorporate quick reads and launches into his game plan to get the ball out of his young passer's hands and neutralize Denver's pass rush. That will open up plenty of opportunities for Johnson, similar to how he has been used in recent weeks without Carr on the field. Last week, Johnson had three catches for 48 yards and had one reception for 30 yards canceled due to a penalty.