Can patience save Billy Napier's job in Florida? What is at stake in a brutal November?

Billy Napier never promised a quick fix in Florida, and the Gators never asked for one.

It's important to remember both points as Napier enters a career-defining stretch starting Saturday when the 4-3 Gators face No. 2 Georgia. His overall record from 15 to 17 years reflects, in part, a deliberate approach to everything — recruiting, evaluation, roster construction and personnel decisions — that only makes sense in the long run.

“You will probably be frustrated with me,” Napier said in his introductory press conference three years ago. “We will be very patient and calculated in everything we do.”

At some point patience has to pay off. Now would be a good time to start.

After Saturday's showdown in Jacksonville, Napier's crucial third season ends with three more No. 6 opponents (No. 6 Texas, home to No. 16 LSU and No. 19 Ole Miss) and a trip to rival Florida State. He must earn two wins to secure bowl eligibility and avoid becoming the first coach in nearly 90 years to begin his Florida career with three losing seasons (Josh Cody, 1936-38).

Napier's job and a buyout worth more than $26 million likely hang in the balance. So does the answer to an intriguing question that resonates far beyond Gainesville.

Can a slow build still work?

Although program-wide patience seems anachronistic in the era of the win-now transfer portal, there was a valid argument for it in Florida and perhaps still exists today.

When Napier was hired after the 2021 regular season, he became the Gators' fourth coach in the 12 years since Urban Meyer's departure. None of the previous three (Dan Mullen, Jim McElwain or Will Muschamp) lasted four full seasons.

But all three had positive success: Muschamp won 11 regular-season games in 2012. McElwain was the first coach to win the SEC title in his first two seasons. Mullen won 29 of his first 35 games and appeared in three consecutive New Year's Six bowls.

This means Florida's problem was not a success. It was, athletic director Scott Stricklin said the day he fired Mullen, sustainable Success.

“You have to create a really good structure and culture to maintain a high, high standard over a long period of time,” Stricklin said at the time.

Scott Stricklin hired Billy Napier from Louisiana in November 2021. (James Gilbert/Getty Images)

If it took time to create the structure and culture necessary for a consistent championship-level program, then so be it; Hitting “reset” every 3-4 years didn’t work.

Florida would be patient.

Most of Napier's first steps fit best with this end goal. He spent much of his first two offseasons filling out an organizational chart with one of the largest support staffs in the country and overhauling Florida's NIL process – systemic fixes rather than short-term patches.

He approached his first recruiting class with a “very conservative, very patient” plan. He acknowledged that his staff “needed a little more time to make a decision and assess the situation,” just a week and a half before the early signing day. It was worth giving up an Isaiah Bond (Alabama's Iron Bowl hero who is now the top receiver in Texas) when it came to avoiding recruiting mistakes and adding weight to the roster.

Napier also refrained from rebuilding his squad in other ways. The player exodus that followed many coaching hires occurred after its first season, not before, delaying its replenishment schedule. He favored high school recruits over portal pickups and postponed on-field success in favor of long-term chemistry and development. When he made scout transfers, he didn't deviate from his thorough evaluations, even when his process didn't fit into the portal's speed dating schedule.

Some of Napier's earliest, tangible changes focused more on the player experience than X's and O's. He expanded parking options. He improved the food (players appreciated the omelet bar and French toast every Friday). He founded GatorMade, a life skills program that includes everything from etiquette lessons to company visits to prepare players for life after football. With great attention to detail, he ensured that everyone wore socks of the same color.

Admirable cultural changes that endeared him to his players. Just not necessarily applicable to winning games straight away.

Napier acknowledged that after a 6-7 freshman season that included the program's first loss at Vanderbilt in three decades and an 0-4 mark against rivals Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Florida State. The Gators, Napier said, had begun setting up their systems on the field, but without the level of detail and discipline that Napier was used to. With everything he had to do, from modernizing the staff to adapting his old design to the NIL/Portal era, he didn't have enough time.

“I had just left a place that was a well-oiled machine to some extent, but he didn't get there overnight,” Napier said in the spring of 2023. “The reality is the first year – I would say even two years .” – In a sense, you’re giving away two years of your life.”

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That may be true for Napier and his philosophy, but it is not true for other coaches hired in the same 2021-22 cycle.

Sonny Dykes and Kalen DeBoer were hired days after Napier; They led TCU and Washington to the national title game. Miami's Mario Cristobal, Oregon's Dan Lanning, LSU's Brian Kelly, SMU's Rhett Lashlee and Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman all have a viable path to the College Football Playoff in their third season. Lincoln Riley and Brent Venables struggled at USC and Oklahoma, but both are coming off seasons of 10 or more wins.

Napier didn't come close. He is 8-12 in SEC play and 1-8 against Florida's annual rivals (including two three-point losses to Georgia). Only three of his 15 wins came against FBS teams with a winning record.

Florida's optimism about a breakout Napier third grader peaked just before kickoff. In a memorable, possibly infamous appearance on “The Paul Finebaum Show,” Stricklin said Florida had been patient and that his patience would soon pay off.

“He’s not going to cut corners, he’s not going to take any shortcuts,” Stricklin said of Napier. “He's going to build a really, really solid foundation and make sure this thing is at the level that all Gators want to achieve, which is to compete for championships and play in meaningful postseason games.” Once he gets to that point, it will be there remain.”

“I really think Billy Napier is going to be the coach at Florida for a long, long time.”

Scott Stricklin says patience will be rewarded with the Gators under Billy Napier: pic.twitter.com/c8trlykrOR

— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) August 30, 2024

And that brings us back to the $26 million question in Gainesville. Will it ever get there?

A day after Stricklin's interview, the answer appeared to be no. Napier lost at home to Miami by 24. Two weeks later, he lost at home to Texas A&M by 13. In a game that wasn't as close as the score suggested. The frustration that Napier had anticipated on day one was bubbling over.

But since then, the Gators have done enough to make a turnaround possible. They beat Mississippi State and UCF by double digits. After a heartbreaking overtime loss at No. 7 Tennessee, Florida bounced back with a 28-point win over Kentucky.

“At that point we could have easily splintered,” Napier said, “but that’s not the case.”

Perhaps this is evidence that Napier has spent more than two years trying to convey improved intangibles. Look closer and you'll see more signs that Napier's persistent approach could be paying off.

According to TruMedia, the Gators are 16th in yards per game during their toughest stretch, up from 92nd in 2023 and 42nd in 2022. Although Napier's first two defenses were among the worst in Florida history, he tripled his System. The Gators held their last three opponents under 315 total yards, and three of their top four tacklers against Kentucky came from Napier's conservatively constructed first recruiting class: Jack Pyburn, Shemar James and Devin Moore.

Napier's thorough portal process produced his top two receivers: Elijhah Badger (Arizona State) and Chimere Dike (Wisconsin). His evaluation and recruiting philosophies led freshman running back Jadan Baugh to tie Florida's record with five rushing touchdowns against Kentucky.

DJ Lagway was the second-ranked QB in the class of 2024. (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images

The biggest reason for optimism is quarterback DJ Lagway, the No. 7 overall recruit in the Class of 2024 in the 247Sports Composite. With Graham Mertz (knee) out for the season, Lagway takes over the lead role. In two starts, Lagway has thrown 10 completions for 40 yards; only five quarterbacks in the country have more. Do the Gators want to risk losing a potential superstar at the game's most important position by firing the coach who hired him?

There are other, less obvious factors to consider in Napier's future. The balance of power with an interim president and an embattled sports director is not ideal for a coaching change. As schools prepare to share more than $20 million directly with players as early as next year, is Florida prepared to pay what is believed to be the second-largest buyout in college football history?

That depends on what happens in the last five games.

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Florida's goal is to compete for national championships. Every national championship coach in the last three decades had at least one season with nine or more wins in their first three years.

With a daunting finish ahead and three defeats already, it seems unrealistic for Napier to overcome this hurdle. But six or seven wins, an upset or two and Napier's first win over the Seminoles? That is conceivable.

So does a proof-of-concept deal that earns Napier another year – and shows that patience may still pay off.

(Top photo: James Gilbert / Getty Images)