Can the Jets' offense improve without Aaron Rodgers giving up his preferences?

The New York Jets shocked the NFL world this week when they announced the firing of head coach Robert Saleh. The 2-3 Jets are now looking for a spark that some teams have seen in the leadership transition, but they may not find it if their quarterback continues to have so much impact on the offense.

In New York, Aaron Rodgers finally has the power he has craved his entire career. The quarterback had little influence on the Packers' personnel and his falling out with the franchise began when Green Bay selected quarterback Jordan Love in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers denied having a “wish list” in New York, but the Jets have signed several of his old Packers teammates since his arrival, including Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard and Tim Boyle.

The end of Mike McCarthy's tenure as Packers head coach was marked by his power struggle with Rodgers, who had a lot of say in the game plan and full control at the line of scrimmage. So much so that at times McCarthy didn't even know what Rodgers was checking.

When McCarthy was fired during the 2018 season, the Packers evolved into a static, pass-heavy offense that relied on Rodgers' ability to play outside of structure. It was a subpar offense that finished 18th in points per drive — nowhere near where it should have been with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The offense focused too much on Rodgers, and the Jets' current offense appears to be headed down the same path as the 2018 Packers, except Rodgers isn't nearly as athletic as he used to be.

After that season, the Packers hired Matt LaFleur as their new head coach and game manager. Although it took some negotiating, Rodgers relinquished control and took control of LaFleur's offense – an offense that relied heavily on pre-snap movement and took away much of the control Rodgers was used to at the line of scrimmage . There is not much time on the game clock to adjust the protections and to audibly signal the plays when there are moves, double moves and even triple moves. After a season of learning the offense, Rodgers had two of the best years of his career, culminating in back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.

Despite statistical success, Rodgers still craved more control. After 2021, Rodgers complained about the frequent use of exercise on the Pardon My Take podcast.

“Just because (Peyton Manning) wanted to look at it and use his cadence variation to create movement and then also be able to keep up with the tempo,” Rodgers said of Manning's game without pre-snap movement. “When you have so much movement, it's difficult to get the pace going. That's because you always have to make sure you're ready and make an application… maybe a duplicate application, maybe this thing, maybe this adaptation of it. … I'm not telling you anything that I wouldn't tell (LaFleur). I'm after him today because there's fucking movement every damn game. I'm wondering: Can we run a play without movement and passing to get some pace going? Because I like to change the pace.”

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Manning and Tom Brady each left late in their careers the teams with which they built their legacies and won Super Bowls before retiring. Both were given a lot of power to shape their attacks. Both had static attacks and had full control at the attack line. The ceiling for this type of offense is high, but it depends on the quarterback's ability to play chess with the opposing defensive coordinator.

That's what Rodgers wanted in New York and that's what he got. It's just that this Jets offense doesn't have nearly the same level of talent as Brady and Manning at their stops. The Jets have running back Breece Hall, who hasn't been as productive as he was in the second half of last season, and Garrett Wilson, who Rodgers has struggled to build chemistry with so far. Additionally, the offensive line had issues with consistent blocking in the run game and pass protection.

As for the advantage that Rodgers is supposed to provide as a chess player on the field, he was completely outclassed by coordinator Brian Flores' Vikings defense on Sunday. Flores has rattled every quarterback he's faced this season, but Rodgers failed to properly respond to the Vikings' most basic and common pressure schemes. Against the Jets, Flores showed the same seven-up, cover-0 blitz he had used for most of his career. In those blitzes, Rodgers was 3-for-6 for 26 yards, with an interception and a sack – not the results you'd expect from a veteran quarterback.

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Before the Jets traded for Rodgers, they hired Nathaniel Hackett, who had had a disastrous stint as head coach of the Denver Broncos that lasted less than a year. Presumably they hired Hackett, much like the Broncos did, to lure Rodgers. Rodgers praised Hackett effusively, but it wasn't just about their relationship. Hackett ran the offense Russell Wilson wanted to the Broncos' detriment. Of course he would let Rodgers do whatever he wanted in New York.

“Once we get to know him and understand him, we'll build around him,” Hackett said after the Broncos traded for Wilson in 2022. “So what will it be? It will be what Russell likes to do that.”

Even at Wilson's best, he never played out of his own pocket with timing and consistency. He always relied on his ability to get out of the pocket and throw outside the numbers. Suddenly it seemed like he wanted to play like a pocket passer for the Broncos. Wilson's offense with the Seahawks was often among the highest in terms of percentage of planned rollouts. For example, the Seahawks ranked third in the number of planned rollouts in 2021, Wilson's final season in Seattle, according to Sports Info Solutions.

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In his season with Hackett, the Broncos ranked 15th in the same metric. Hackett gave in to what Wilson wanted to do instead of what was best for the team. Something similar is happening in New York.

Hackett's offenses have always been among the worst in the league in terms of movement and play utilization, which naturally fits Rodgers' preferences. The Jets rank 28th in motion usage and 22nd in play-action usage this season. Movement and play-action have proven to be useful tools for an offense, but again, they take away agency from quarterbacks.

Movement helps displace linebackers and forces the defense to quickly adjust and communicate before the snap. Some quarterbacks don't like it because they want the defense to stay the same to make it easier to understand without changing the picture. The problem is that Rodgers hasn't shown the mental toughness advertised and this offense isn't very talented. You need tools like exercise to be successful. Although the sample size isn't large, the Jets' offense is much more efficient with movement than without.

Below is a chart showing where the Jets stand in success rate with and without movement on play-action, zone runs and gap scheme runs.

The Jets announced Thursday that passing game coordinator Todd Downing will take over the game management duties, but I can't imagine much will change. Downing is very similar to Hackett in that neither has a track record as an offensive coordinator – Downing took over an offense that ranked second in points per drive the year before and was 21st in his two seasons as the Titans' offensive coordinator the same metric occupied 2021-2022. Both coordinators have committed static offenses in the past. Unless Downing has made major philosophical changes during his time as a player, the Jets' offensive structure should look similar.

The offense built into Rodgers' image simply doesn't work. They rank 23rd in points per drive and 23rd in DVOA. There's a chance they could trade for receiver Davante Adams, who is obviously on Rodgers' wish list. Adams could be a big help to this offense because of its static nature – they need players who can dominate one-on-one matchups, and Adams could still do that at an elite level.

Still, Adams wouldn't alleviate all of the Jets' problems. This offense needs to be more like what LaFleur ran with Rodgers in Green Bay. Of course, Downing isn't the theater maker that LaFleur is, but he can copy some of these ideas. No one should expect this offense to be a top 10 unit, but with the defense playing at an elite level, it just needs to be average for this team to compete. There are still memories of the old Rodgers. He can still make exceptional throws. The tools to at least facilitate a more efficient offense are there, but Rodgers must be willing to give up his ideas about what that offense should look like.

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