Caribbean disruption is expected to be Rafael

A disturbance in the Caribbean is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday, which could develop into a hurricane before moving into the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions will likely be less favorable for the system to maintain that intensity .

Here is the current status of this system: The disturbance was classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This process allows the NHC to issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning for a system that has not yet developed but is expected to impact land areas within 48 hours.

(​MORE: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?)

Here is the latest intensification and track forecast: This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael later today. Depending on how quickly it organizes, it could become a hurricane somewhere near the Cayman Islands or western Cuba Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Future Rafael is forecast to experience some weakening in the Gulf of Mexico as it will likely experience increasingly adverse high-altitude winds, some dry air, and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.

“The system is forecast to move into the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties surrounding long-term forecast direction and intensity, it is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, may occur. Residents of this area should do so.” “Monitor regularly for updates to the forecast,” the NHC said Monday.

However, starting Wednesday, Rafael could at least help increase rainfall in Florida and other parts of the southeastern U.S. by drawing tropical moisture northward. It is still too early to determine further details.

What you can expect from this system in the Caribbean: Heavy rains could cause flash floods and mudslides from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba early this week. Strong winds could also cause damage in these areas and storm surges are possible.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, meaning tropical storm conditions (winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour) are expected within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. This means that hurricane conditions (winds of 74 miles per hour or greater) are possible within the observation area over the next 48 hours.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years, having started his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.