CBS News Harris-Trump Poll: Divided in Pennsylvania

Just one more week, it's a undecided race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Pennsylvania – the biggest electoral prize of the contested states in the Election 2024.

Trump is helped by the negative perceptions of today's voters Business and by the fact that more voters think they would be better off financially with him in the White House than with Harris. Looking back, significantly more voters in Pennsylvania say things were good in the US during Trump's presidency than they do today.

Harris leads Trump among voters assessing the state of democracy abortion are important factors, and for some personal qualities it has an advantage. More believe she has the mental health to serve as president than Trump, and voters are more likely to view Harris' positions as reasonable and Trump's as extreme.

And while Harris hasn't convinced most Pennsylvania voters that she would strengthen US democracy (nor has Trump), slightly more believe Trump will weaken it.

There has been little movement in the race here since September.

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Looking back, more Pennsylvania voters say the country was doing well when Trump was president, and those who think that way support him in large numbers. Trump maintains his lead on the question of who would make people better off financially, leading Harris well among those who cite the U.S.-Mexico border as a major factor in their vote.

The state of democracy, among other issues, is an important factor for Pennsylvania voters, but neither Harris nor Trump have any clear indication of who would strengthen U.S. democracy if they became president. Slightly more voters believe Trump will weaken democracy than say the same about Harris, and that's particularly true among those who say democracy is an important factor in their vote.

Personal qualities

But Trump's positions, more than Harris's, are viewed as extreme by more Pennsylvania voters, and those who hold that view overwhelmingly support Harris.

In general, more voters like the way Harris personally handles himself than the way Trump does. (Although neither candidate is personally popular with the majority of voters).

And that helps Harris to some extent. Almost all voters who like Harris are voting for her.

For Trump, however, there is a quarter of voters who don't like the way he conducts himself personally but still vote for him. Therefore, for many people, not liking the way Trump behaves is not an exclusion criterion. Only 5% of voters who dislike Harris support her.

Voter groups

In this head-to-head race, Harris is doing well with many of the same groups that President Biden excelled with in 2020, and Trump retains much of the support of those key groups that backed him.

White voters without a college degree (more than 4 in 10 voters here) continue to be among Trump's strongest supporters. Most believe his policies will make them better off financially than Harris's, and they overwhelmingly support him.

Harris leads Trump among college-educated white voters, who make up just over a third of the electorate, a group that has leaned Democratic in recent elections.

This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania surveyed between October 22 and October 28, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on U.S. Census data and voter records, as well as past voting. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.

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