Chris Godwin vs. Dee Alford WR/CB matchup with next-gen stats

Week 5 of the NFL season opens with a Thursday night matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons.

This matchup is scheduled to take place in Atlanta with the Falcons entering as 1.5-point favorites and -125 odds at the money line at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have +105 moneyline odds while the game's total points total is 44 points.

One of the most notable matchups that will play a role in which team comes out on top will be between Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin and Falcons CB Dee Alford.

Entering this week, Godwin has player prop lines of 5.5 receptions, with the over-favorites at -155 odds, and 64.5 receiving yards, with DraftKings Sportsbook odds at -115 both ways.

Next-gen stats and past matchups

Godwin has had a successful season so far. He has 27 receptions on 34 targets, which he has turned into 322 yards and three touchdowns this season. He has posted more than 64.5 receiving yards in three of the first four meetings, including 117 receiving yards against the Lions.

Most of this damage occurred when Godwin lined up in the slot, as 17 of those receptions, 228 of his receiving yards, and two of his touchdowns occurred when Godwin was serving as a slot receiver. His receiving EPA of 19.2 is an impressive outlier in this category.

Expect Dee Alford to win the first duel in these slot opportunities. So far this season, he has spent 87 coverage snaps as the primary defender. He allowed 21 receptions on 25 targets, allowing 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns while also adding two pass breakups. Looking only at his snaps at the slot position, Alford logged 73 snaps. He has allowed 21 targets on those occasions, which resulted in 17 receptions, 143 yards and two touchdowns.

While these are some concerning results, Alford has had success against Godwin in her career. In three of the four meetings he fell short of that receiving margin of 64.5 yards.

Ultimately, it feels like the Buccaneers offense is firing on all cylinders and the Falcons are just the next defense in the way. Four Tampa Bay pass catchers have posted more than 100 yards receiving this season. Baker Mayfield ranks sixth in the entire NFL in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns. Godwin leads all Tampa Bay wide receivers in targets, receptions and yards. His 322 receiving yards are over 100 more than any other Buccaneers receiver, so you can count on him to continue to be heavily involved in the offense.

Expect the Buccaneers to have done their homework on Alford's issues in the slot and for this to be a matchup that plays a big role in deciding the winner.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.

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