College football odds, picks, bets

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 6-0? Since when?

They've pulled off some wild wins this year behind rising quarterback Eli Holstein and a strong, balanced offensive attack.

But the Syracuse Orange's 5-1 record is no joke. Their 44-41 win over UNLV was one of college football's best victories this season.

Read on for my Syracuse-Pittsburgh predictions and the best college football bets for Thursday's primetime ACC matchup (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh odds

Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Prediction

I think the Panthers will lose a game. They needed a 14-point fourth-quarter comeback to beat Cincinnati and a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback to sneak past West Virginia.

The offense was atrocious last week against Cal, where they won with a 17-15 grind despite running 21 fewer plays and gaining 23 fewer yards.

However, there is a lot to like about the Panthers. Their rushing attack is dangerous (fourth in EPA per rush) behind top back Desmond Reid (496 yards, 6.3 YPC) and Holstein's dual-threat ability (350 yards, 7.6 YPC).

Their front seven has withstood the onslaught (10th in EPA per rush allowed) and they rank in the top 50 nationally in Havoc and PFF pass rush grades.

But their secondary is a glaring weakness. The corners are slit open. Ryland Gandy and Rashad Battle allowed 37 balls on 61 targets (61% completion) for nearly 500 yards (8.2 yards per target).

They were consistently targeted deep downfield, with Gandy allowing an average target depth of 18.7 yards. Pitt ranks 120th nationally in EPA per pass and pass explosiveness allowed.

While Syracuse's overall resume is up for debate, Kyle McCord shines in Upstate New York, ranking among the top 15 qualified FBS quarterbacks in the EPA by dropback and pass success rate. He has already accumulated more than 2,100 yards in six games and leads the nation in big-time throws with 21.

Jackson Meeks and Trebor Pena have established themselves as half-decent wideouts. Meeks is averaging an explosive 2.5 yards per route run, but it's worth noting that Pena is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Tight end Oronde Gadsen is a unit from the slot – those McCord-to-Gadsen seam routes remind me of old Brady-to-Gronk passing concepts.

Syracuse's professional offense is cooking, ranking 11th nationally in EPA per pass and 13th in pass success rate. The Orange should move the ball against Pitt's exploitable defensive field.

On defense, Syracuse struggled without linebacker Marlowe Wax. The front seven is weak, so the Orange were bullied at the bottom.

Defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson has done his best to keep everything in front of him – the Orange rank 51st nationally in explosiveness allowed but 113th in success rate allowed.

Betting on college football?

While Pitt should move the ball consistently on the floor, I think Holstein's carelessness will bite him. He fumbled the ball five times, but the Panthers recovered it four times.

When you combine his 12 turnover passes with just five interceptions, the Panthers are facing significant turnover losses.

Choice between Syracuse and Pittsburgh

I think the Panthers are overrated and worth fading. But at least McCord and Gadsen should move the ball, score often and keep the game exciting for 60 minutes.

My numbers predict Syracuse to be closer to +4.5 than +5.5, so I'm willing to bet on the Orange at +5 or better.

Best bet: Syracuse +5.5 (-110, bet365)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.