College Football Playoff Ranking Predictions: Top 25 Predictions for Week 11

The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2024 are almost here. Before the CFP committee announces the rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will finish.

POLL: Latest Top 25 Rankings

The first of six CFP Top 25 reveals will take place on Tuesday, November 5 (here's the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee might rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, strength of schedule, games against ranked teams, and more to help rank teams the way I think the CFP committee will proceed. You can read the official minutes of the GFP Committee here.

2024 College Football Playoff Ranking Predictions: First Top 25 Predictions

These predictions are for Monday, November 4th.

1. Oregon (9-0) – Oregon is undefeated with a win over Ohio State. The Ducks are ranked No. 1.
2. Ohio State (7-1) – Ohio State's only loss of the season came to the No. 1 team in the country, Oregon, and it just beat a Penn State team that is probably in the committee's top 10. The only thing that could keep the Buckeyes out of the top two is their non-conference schedule.
3. Georgia (7-1) – Georgia is behind Ohio State because the loss came against an Alabama team that is worse than Oregon. However, the Bulldogs are in third place due to wins over ranked teams Clemson and Texas.
4. BYU (8-0) – BYU might surprise some with its ranking on Tuesday. The Cougars are undefeated and have notable wins over Kansas State and SMU to bolster their resume. That puts to rest any questions the committee had about the strength of its schedule.
5. Miami (FL) (9-0) – Miami is undefeated, but its only win against a team ranked by the committee is Louisville. As a team that may not be able to earn a ranked win, Miami falls outside the top four.
6. Tennessee (7-1) – Tennessee's only loss came at the hands of Arkansas, but the win over Alabama is what pushes the Vols into the top six.
7. Texas (7-1) – Texas is in seventh place because its wins over Michigan, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt haven't aged well. Add to that a multi-score loss that none of the top-six teams have, and the Longhorns are right there.
8. Penn State (7-1) – Penn State's best win is against an Illinois team that has already suffered three losses. The Nittany Lions are also coming off their first loss (against Ohio State), something the committee will remember.
9. Indiana (9-0) – Indiana is undefeated, but its schedule has been the worst of the unbeaten quartet in the top 10. The Hoosiers haven't beaten any team, not even in the top CFP rankings.
10. Alabama (6-2) – Alabama is in the top 10 because of its wins over Georgia and Missouri. The Tide has losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but those wins, especially the win over the Bulldogs, put Alabama in the top 10.
11. SMU (8-1) — SMU's only loss came to a BYU team that I think the committee will hold in high regard. Add wins over Louisville and most recently Pitt, and the Mustangs clinch the final at-large CFP spot.
12. Notre Dame (7-1) – Notre Dame won against Texas A&M, but the home loss to Northern Illinois is glaring. This means the Fighting Irish will stay out of the playoffs for the time being.
13. Texas A&M (7-2) – Head-to-head racing is important, which is why Texas A&M is behind Notre Dame but ahead of LSU, even after a tough loss to South Carolina.
14. LSU (6-2) – LSU's loss to USC has aged like sour grapes. However, a win over Ole Miss will keep the Tigers in the bubble in the top CFP rankings.
15. Boise State (7-1) – Boise State lost to the No. 1 team in the country by just three points and beat a Washington State team that is now 7-1 by three touchdowns. The Broncos open the CFP rankings in the top 15, although the committee has historically ranked teams outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC low.
16. Ole Miss (7-2) – Ole Miss has lost two games by a total of six points. While the non-conference schedule left a lot to be desired, the win over South Carolina looks better.
17. Iowa State (7-1) – Iowa State lost to an unranked Texas Tech squad by one point. However, a win over non-conference Iowa carries weight to open No. 17.
18. Pittsburgh (7-1) – Pitt is coming off a loss to SMU, but the Panthers are still a one-loss team. With Pitt suffering its only loss to a ranked team, it will start in the top 20.
19. Kansas State (7-2) – A loss to Houston was unexpected and put Kansas State farther away from the playoff bubble, but a win over Colorado looks a lot better than it did back then.
20. Army (8-0) – Army is 8-0 but has not beaten or played a team under consideration by the committee. However, the Black Knights earned a top-20 finish after an undefeated start.
21. Louisville (6-3) – Louisville's victory over Clemson gave the Cardinals a big win and offset three ranked losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami – all top-12 teams.
22. Clemson (6-2) – Although Clemson has fewer losses than Louisville, this is a direct duel.
23. South Carolina (5-3) – South Carolina beat Texas A&M by just 24 points. South Carolina's three losses came to ranked teams, but this win moves them up the rankings.
24. Missouri (6-2) – Missouri has two losses to Alabama and Texas A&M, but the win over Vanderbilt secures it a spot in the rankings.
25. Colorado (6-2) – Colorado is just outside the top 20 because it's fair to say that their best win this season was North Dakota State.

Notable College Football Playoff Rankings Questions

How big is Notre Dame's flaw?

This loss in Northern Illinois could mean a lot or a little. The committee's opinion will determine whether Notre Dame starts inside the top 10 or outside the projected playoff field.

Where does the best-placed team with two losses end up?

2024 will be the first year a two-loss team reaches the College Football Playoff. The early CFP rankings are important as we find out how the committee will judge two-loss teams in this new format.

What does the committee think about Boise State?

Boise State is ranked No. 12 in the AP poll and No. 14 in the coaches poll, but neither poll has an impact on the CFP rankings. Could Boise State be seeded higher than 12? It's a possibility.

How important will the strength of the schedule be?

In recent years the CFP Committee has placed great emphasis on the strength of the timetable. I have reflected this in some of my predictions. However, since this is a new committee, things could be different. How the committee thinks SOS will impact teams like Miami (FL), Indiana and more.