College Football Upset Picks – Week 7

Eastern Michigan

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM

Anyone looking at the records of these two teams may be wondering how favored the Miami RedHawks are considering they are 1-4 while the Eastern Michigan Eagles are 4-1. But the RedHawks have already played Notre Dame, Northwestern and Cincinnati this season, while the toughest opponent the Eagles faced was Washington.

However, both teams played UMass. EMU went on the road in the opening week and won by two touchdowns, while Miami needed overtime to beat them at home. That's one of the reasons why I think the wrong team is being favored here.

Miami has lost all three road games this season, in large part because it cannot run the ball efficiently. The RedHawks average just three yards per carry, which is a big reason they rely on their passing game.

The problem is that they didn't have much success there either. Brett Gabbert only completes half of his shots, a big reason why Miami ranks 97th in EPA/dropback and 130th in points per game.

To make matters worse, Miami may be without two offensive players this weekend. With Eastern Michigan having the 32nd best quarterback sack rate in college football, that's probably not optimal for a line that already allows its quarterback to get hit a lot.

Eastern Michigan ranks 21st in time of possession and 14th in rushing attempts per game, and Miami has allowed at least 4.2 YPC to every starting defender it has faced this season. The Eagles will give it their all, control the clock and get the home win.

LSU

Best odds: +140 at BetMGM

There are few things in college football more intimidating for a visiting team than going to Death Valley at night. The LSU Tigers have a 108-15 record at home under the lights in program history, with Brian Kelly winning all 12 of those contests during his time in Baton Rouge.

It's a tough situation for a Mississippi Rebels team dealing with injury concerns. Leading receiver Tre Harris left the South Carolina game and is questionable for this weekend. His absence would be a major blow to an offense looking to exploit a suspect LSU secondary.

But it's the other side of the ball where LSU should find success. Mississippi has been fortunate to face teams with lackluster quarterback play this season, with most of its opponents ranking in the bottom half of EPA/Dropback Ratings. But in their loss to Kentucky, the Rebels allowed Brock Vandagriff to throw for 243 yards — an eye-opener considering he had thrown for just 550 total yards in his first four games.

Garrett Nussmeier will easily be the biggest challenge for Mississippi's defense this season. He has thrown 15 touchdowns in LSU's first five games and has more than 300 passing yards in four of his five appearances.

Mississippi has found much of its success defensively against the pass by getting to the quarterback, with a sack rate of more than 10%. LSU is allowing sacks on just 1.2% of its passing plays this season, and South Carolina's crazy pass rush managed just two in its loss to the Tigers.

The Rebels could be without edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, who PFF ranked as the 14th best player at his position this season. Defensive tackle JJ Pegues is also questionable, meaning Mississippi may lose half of its outstanding defensive line.

LSU's defense hasn't been great, but Mississippi will find its defense facing an elite passing attack without the ability to generate sacks to make up for issues on the backcourt. The Rebels have been hurt this season by holding and passing interference flags against good receivers, and cornerback Brandon Turnage has repeatedly been the target of opposing offenses.

The Tigers go into the game feeling rested after a bye and the atmosphere will be a big advantage for them. Take LSU to add another night win to their record.

Georgia South

Best odds: +105 at BetMGM

When looking at the Georgia Southern Eagles' defensive stats, it's easy to think that there's no chance the Marshall Thundering Herd won't lead to a win. However, it's important to remember that the Eagles have played two offenses this season in Mississippi and Boise State that significantly skewed the data.

The Rebels totaled over 600 yards of offense and scored far more points as the game was decided. And the Broncos managed 651 yards, thanks in part to Ashton Jeanty, who gained 267 yards on the ground.

Although their defense wasn't the best, the Eagles weren't as bad as they might seem at first glance. But more importantly, they were able to score points – so many that they pushed Boise to the limit and led 37-36 with 13:30 left in the game.

Marshall has an outstanding rushing attack, but ranks just 64th in EPA/Rush. Additionally, throwing the ball is a problem area. The Thundering Herd are middle of the pack in EPA/dropback and are in the 100s in yards per pass, completion rate and explosiveness.

Georgia Southern likes to throw the ball and JC French has had good games when not playing against Power 4 teams. He leads an offense that has never failed in the red zone, and I expect him to put up points against a Marshall defense that ranks 96th in red zone point defense and 95th in point defense lies.

Cornerback Jacobie Henderson was targeted 25 times this season and allowed 19 catches for 245 yards. Quarterbacks also post a QB Rating of 158.3 when tackling safety JJ Roberts. Only nine FBS teams complete more passes to wide receivers beyond the line of scrimmage per game than Georgia Southern, and I expect the Eagles to find success in the backfield.

Marshall has just 28 throws for 10 yards this season and switched quarterbacks last week when dual-threat Braylon Braxton took the reins. This will be his first road test, and the fourth-year junior has only had one good road outing in his career despite multiple starts.

The Eagles are looking for revenge on their rivals after letting two late touchdowns slip a win last season. I expect this to be a shootout and I will be rooting for the team playing at home with the better quarterback and something to prove.