Colts-Vikings betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

NFL Week 9 on Sunday concludes with a matchup between two of the league's best teams against the spread, with the Colts (7-1 ATS) traveling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings (5-2 ATS).

Despite the inconsistency at the game's most important position, Indianapolis currently holds the league's best record against the spread, with its only failed coverage coming in Week 2 as an away favorite in Green Bay.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen made the decision to sign the second-year quarterback this week Anthony Richardson in favor of the veteran Joe Flaccowho played relatively well during his time as a starter. During his run at the top in Weeks 4-6, Flacco helped post a clean 3-0 record against the spread, including two straight wins as an underdog and two road covers.

The difference in offensive efficiency of this team with Flacco at center is striking compared to the way this unit operates with Richardson at the helm. When compared to the veteran, Indianapolis ranked in the EPA's top eight in dropback and scoring drive percentage in Weeks 4-6. Conversely, in the weeks that Richardson was in charge, this offense ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in EPA per game (23rd), successful play percentage (24th) and scoring drive percentage (26th).

Making this decision was a smart move by Steichen since the Vikings were on the schedule. Minnesota is looking for a good game after losing its last two games and failing to cover for the first time this year. The Vikings still hold one of the league's best records against the spread (5-2).

Minnesota has had defensive issues in recent weeks, particularly difficulty covering with sufficient consistency. Miscommunication and backend failures have resulted in significant data loss. The team's coverage unit produced the highest percentage of open targets (80.4%) and the highest percentage of passes of more than 15 yards (27.0%).

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: Over 5.5 receptions + over 62.5 receiving yards (+100)

When Joe Flacco was at the helm from week 4 to 6, Josh Downs appeared to be one of the NFL's best receivers, having earned the third-highest PFF receiving grade (89.7) at the position, fueled by top-five grades in threat percentage (33.3%), receptions (24) and firsts -Down catches (15). ).

Downs is undoubtedly a crucial factor in this offense, and Flacco would do well to highlight him, as the veteran has targeted him nine or more times in every game they've played together this season. Downs sees a variety of matchups and target variations in the slot, which has allowed him to eclipse those lines in every game with Flacco.

The Vikings' recent coverage problems are embodied in their safety issues Josh Metellus. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores uses Metellus in various lineups and looks, a role in which he performed well earlier in the year. But over the last two games, Metellus has posted just a 38.9 PFF coverage grade and allowed the most open targets (10) and receptions of more than 15 yards (four) on the team.