Could the Yiwu Index, China's popular wholesale market, predict the winner of the US election? – First post

Can the sale of counterfeit goods in China predict the outcome of the US election?

Analysts are watching the “Yiwu Index” for a clue as to who will win this week's all-important poll – Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.

Interestingly, the Yiwu Index predicted Trump's victory in 2016 more accurately than almost all professional pollsters betting on Hillary Clinton.

But what is the “Yiwu Index”? How accurate is it really?

Let's take a closer look:

A popular wholesale market

First, let’s take a quick look at Yiwu.

Yiwu is located in Zhejiang Province, China.

According to The news lens, It is one of China's most popular wholesale markets.

It is also the world's largest small goods trading center.

According to SCMP, Yiwu is known as China's small trade capital.

Manufacturers making everything from Halloween decorations to artificial Christmas trees are based here.

Accordingly The Telegraph, The international trade center includes 70,000 stalls on 12 floors.

The market does not typically sell directly to customers.

Instead, it sells to large international retailers who place orders by anticipating demand.

According to global times, it produces 60 percent of the world's Christmas goods

What happened in 2016?

In 2016, while most pollsters predicted a Clinton victory by the end of the campaign, sales of the then-Democratic candidate's goods at the Yiwu market began to decline.

Proponents of the “Yiwu Index” therefore claim that Trump’s sales figures against Clinton predicted his election victory.

“When everyone said the Democrats, Hilary Clinton, would win, the index suggested otherwise,” Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the U.S.-based think tank Council on Foreign Relations told the outlet.

“It's not the Chinese who buy this stuff, it's the Americans, the delegations, the rallies, these people who buy it. Could this be an indicator of how passionate people or voters are? That way you can understand it better.”

According to the newspaper, Beijing is likely using the index to keep tabs on the 2024 race.

What about 2024?

According to The Telegraph,
Harris' merchandise – particularly a camouflaged hat – recently sold out 30 minutes after it went on sale.

Which is a good sign for the Democrats.

However, some say the “Yiwu Index” is more of a myth.

They point to 2020, when Trump lost the race even though his merchandise exceeded that of his then-opponent Joe Biden.

“From June to August, we sold a total of 42,245 campaign accessories for Trump, twice as many as for Biden,” said a Yiwu manufacturer Global times in 2020.

Trump's merchandise sales also exceeded Biden's when it came to diversity.

Biden merchandise sold included flags, garden flags, hand signal flags and banners. However, sales of Trump's merchandise in 2020 included all of these plus couplets – which was the best-selling item.

Some say this is easy to explain.

Daily Mail pointed out that those who support the former president are more likely to purchase and wear items in public that express their loyalty to him than voters for Harris — or any other candidate.

Others say the “Yiwu Index” may no longer be an accurate barometer.

“Imagine a scenario where you have a Trump neighbor versus a Democratic neighbor. Trump voters are more likely to show their MAGA (Make America Great Again) stuff,” Zongyuan said The Telegraph.

“Democrats, people who vote independently, or those who are undecided are less likely to spend money to buy these things. So I would say that the Yiwu Index may no longer be an accurate indicator because voter behavior and the way they show their enthusiasm has changed.”

With input from agencies

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