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Could tightening races lead to a split result in Wisconsin?

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Could tightening races lead to a split result in Wisconsin?

Craig Gilbert
| Special to the Journal Sentinel

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For much of 2024, polls suggest that the Senate and presidential races in Wisconsin followed slightly separate paths, with the presidential race a tie but Senate Democrat Tammy Baldwin holding a modest but steady lead over the Republican challenger Eric Hovde had.

But in the latest Wisconsin poll from Marquette Law School, those two races have become closer.

In head-to-head duels, Baldwin is two points ahead of Hovde in the Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris is one point ahead of former President Donald Trump. That's according to Marquette's latest preelection poll of 753 likely Wisconsin voters in October. 16-24.

The proximity of both races leaves all sorts of possibilities open.

Both parties could win the top two contests in Wisconsin.

Or we could see a rare split result, with one party winning the Senate race and the other winning the presidential race.

The last time this happened in Wisconsin was 56 years ago, in 1968.

But if both races are close enough, it wouldn't take too many Baldwin-Trump voters or Hovde-Harris voters to get a split result.

Further complicating the relationship between the two races is the expectation that there will be more third-party votes for president than for the Senate, meaning third-party presidential voters could play a role in the Baldwin-Hovde contest.

Harris does slightly better against Trump in Marquette's poll when independent candidates are included in the poll, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who withdrew and supported Trump but remains on the ballot in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Baldwin's very slim lead over Hovde doesn't change when independents are included.

The closeness of the 2024 Senate race is a departure from Baldwin's first two elections, which she won by nearly 6 points in 2012 and by nearly 11 points in 2018.

The competition grew tighter as Baldwin's spending advantage over Hovde faded, the advertising wars intensified, and GOP advertising against Baldwin appeared to drive up their negative results.

In the new poll, 45% of voters viewed Baldwin favorably and 50% viewed her negatively. That's the highest negative rating Baldwin has received in more than a decade of Marquette polls, although her positive rating is also above her long-term average.

Hovde's negatives are also at a peak this year, as the advertising wars have increased both candidates' negatives as well as their overall profile. The Republican candidate is viewed positively by 37% of voters and negatively by 48%.

The closeness of the 2024 Senate race in this 50/50 state is consistent with a very strong historical pattern.

In Wisconsin, when a Senate race coincides with a presidential race, there is typically little difference between them because of the polarizing nature of presidential elections.

The last time Wisconsin had a split result for president and Senate on the same vote was when Republican Richard Nixon won the presidential contest here in 1968 and Democrat Gaylord Nelson won re-election in the Senate.

Since then, these competitions have largely taken place in lockstep.

Democrats won both contests in 1976, Republicans won both in 1980, Democrats won both in 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004 and 2012; and Republicans won both in 2016.

In most of these elections (the exceptions were 2000 and 2004), the Senate and Presidential elections were decided by similar results (within 3 points of each other).

In years when a Senate race coincides with a gubernatorial race, the pattern is slightly different, as there is more division of tickets and more separation between contests.

For example, just two years ago there was a split result for these two offices. Republican Ron Johnson won re-election to the 2022 Senate by a margin of 1 point and Democrat Tony Evers won re-election to governor by more than 3 points.

In Baldwin's last race in 2018, the same party won both offices, but the difference in margins reflected a relatively high level of ticket splitting for today. Evers won the governor's race by 1.1 points and Baldwin won the Senate race by nearly 11 points.

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