Current polls, history and why the state's results matter

For the third consecutive presidential cycle, Arizona is considered one of the key swing states expected to help decide the winner of the election.

Polls in the Grand Canyon State show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Three websites that aggregate polls for battleground states — Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each have Trump leading Harris by less than two percentage points, well within their margins of error.

🗳 Key races

In addition to the presidential race, there is a crucial race in Arizona between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

Gallego, who represents Arizona's third congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives, has regularly overtaken Lake, the former Republican gubernatorial candidate, in the race to replace retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

↩️ Past election history

The results of the last three presidential elections in Arizona are as follows:

• 2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 0.31%.

• 2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 3.50%.

• 2012: Mitt Romney (R) defeated Barack Obama (D) with 9.06%.

📈 In which direction the state is developing

In the last presidential election, Arizona moved to the left. In 2012, Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, won the state by more than 9 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by less than 4 points, the narrowest margin of any Republican who has won the presidency since the state's founding in 1912. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to overtake Arizona, winning by just 0.31% or 10,457 votes.

📌 Why it matters

Biden's victory in Arizona in 2020 was fueled by high turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters – a voting bloc that could also prove crucial in 2024.

🗣️ What do you think?