Donald Trump ousts Kamala Harris' lead in latest Pennsylvania poll

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, with the former president erasing Harris' recent lead, according to a national poll released Friday became.

Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, is crucial to winning next week's presidential election.

USA today/The latest Suffolk University poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted Oct. 27-30 and shows Harris and Trump tied with 49 percent of the vote each, with a margin error of 4.4 percentage points.

Friday's poll wipes out the vice president's lead USA today/The Sept. 16 Suffolk University poll showed Harris leading Trump by three percentage points (48.6 to 45.6 percent).

The latest poll results included a survey of 300 likely voters in two key counties. Erie County showed Trump and Harris both tied at 48 percent. Meanwhile, Northampton County leaned slightly toward Trump: 50 percent said they supported him, compared to 48 percent who said Harris.

The results of the district surveys are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out online Friday to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.

“All three Palestinian Authority polls show that it is a close race within their respective margins of error and that the actual results will depend on which campaign can win over more voters on election day,” said David Paleologos, director of policy research at the Palestinian Authority Suffolk University Center said in an emailed statement Newsweek on Friday.

These latest results correspond to a Marist Poll released on September 19th that polled 1,476 likely voters in Pennsylvania between September 12th and 17th. In the Marist poll, the vice president and former president both polled at 49 percent. The error rate was 3.2 percentage points.

Additionally, the Marist poll found Harris leading Trump among nonwhite voters (59 percent to 38 percent). However, Harris' support among non-whites did not reach the level of support that President Joe Biden received four years ago (82 percent).

Friday's poll also revealed demographic and issue differences. Nationally, Harris leads among women, and Trump has gained a similar lead among men. In Pennsylvania, this gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said, as reported by USA today.

According to the poll, Trump is 20 percentage points ahead among men in the swing state, 57 percent to 37 percent, while Harris is ahead of Trump among women by 18 percent (57 percent to 39 percent). By comparison, Trump has a 16-point lead among men nationally and Harris has a 17-point lead among women.

Pennsylvania is one of several key swing states that could decide the outcome of the election and is part of the “blue wall” made up of the 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in most elections since 1992 .

Blue Wall states include California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington, as well as the key battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

Overall, the Republican Party has won Pennsylvania in 26 presidential elections, while the Democratic Party has won in 20. In 2016, Trump carried the state by just 0.7 points over former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while in 2020 Biden carried it over Pennsylvania by 1.2 points.

Each campaign has stepped up outreach in Pennsylvania, and both have rallies planned across the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday and is reportedly holding a rally in Philadelphia on the eve of Election Day.