Donald Trump: US election 2024: Betting markets bet heavily on Trump before November 5th | World News

A clear divergence between the two can be observed in the 2024 US presidential election campaign Betting markets and traditional polling data, with the odds increasingly tipped in favor of Donald Trump, although Kamala Harris is performing slightly better in several key polls. This contrast highlights the unique ways in which these two forecasting models interpret and predict political outcomes, and sparks debate about which better reflects voter sentiment and possible election outcomes.

Betting markets: Trump's Edge

In recent months, betting markets have been trending in favor of Trump, with odds on various platforms such as BetOnline, Betfair, Bovada and others showing him as the frontrunner. On average, these betting platforms estimate a 54.3% chance of Trump winning, compared to 44.4% for Harris. This reflects a consistent lead for Trump across all platforms and signals that many bettors believe he has a slight but reliable edge.

Read: Is Polymarket Rigged?
Why the betting markets might favor Trump
Betting markets often encompass a wider range of influences than polls alone. Factors that could be driving this pro-Trump sentiment include:
1. Perceived voter enthusiasm: Trump has always demonstrated a strong and mobilized voter base. Markets may be taking into account his ability to motivate supporters and drive high turnout, particularly among demographics that may not always show up in traditional polls.
2. Electoral College Dynamics: The unique structure of the Electoral College is often due to betting markets. A candidate can lose the popular vote and still win the presidency, as Trump did in 2016. Markets may be anticipating Trump's ability to win key battleground states, which could swing the election in his favor.
3. Uncertain factors: The unpredictability of campaigns, debates and other late-stage events tends to influence betting odds. Given Trump's reputation for high-profile media appearances and strategic surprise maneuvers, bettors may be confident in his ability to sway last-minute voters.

Survey positions
In contrast, traditional polls, including recent aggregates from RealClearPolitics (RCP), show Kamala Harris with a modest lead in key battleground states and among certain demographics. In the Five-Thirty Eight poll, Harris is ahead by less than a point, which has declined in recent weeks, starting with a 3.6 lead in early September.
Betting markets vs. surveys: which is more reliable?
The divergence between betting markets and surveys raises a recurring question: which one offers a more accurate forecast? Historically, there have been predictable successes and failures in both cases. Polls rely on direct responses from voters and often include a representative sample, while betting markets reflect bettors' sentiments, which are influenced by factors beyond pure poll numbers.
Some argue that betting markets could achieve a “wisdom of the crowd” effect by integrating diverse perspectives and unmeasured insights. Others argue that traditional polls, despite their limitations, provide a more direct measure of voter intent and demographic characteristics.
As the election approaches, the gap between polls and betting markets is likely to attract even more attention, as any shift in odds and poll averages will prompt new rounds of analysis. It remains to be seen whether Trump's positivity in the betting markets or Harris' poll results translate into an accurate prediction, but the disparity highlights the complexity and unpredictability of the 2024 presidential campaign.