Donald Trump's chances of a landslide victory – Nate Silver

Donald Trump's chances of winning seven key swing states and securing a landslide victory are 21.4 percent, nearly double Kamala Harris' 12.6 percent, according to leading pollster Nate Silver.

Silver's election prediction model describes all possible paths to victory for both candidates, taking into account any combination of the seven key tipping states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump winning all seven swing states would result in him receiving 312 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 he needs to secure the presidency.

Of all the possible scenarios, Silver's model predicts that Trump is most likely to break through these swing states. Harris winning all of these states is the second most likely outcome.

Silver, a leading poll analyst and founder of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, has his own model for predicting election results on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin. This model is based on FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting methodology.

Silver's model shows Harris with a slight lead over Trump in the national poll average, with the vice president at 48.5 percent and the former president at 47.8 percent.

However, Silver's model predicts that while Harris is much more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College, 52.6 percent versus 47 percent.

Trump won the presidency in 2016 but also lost the popular vote, becoming the fifth president in U.S. history to do so.

Of the “blue wall” states seen as crucial to Harris' victory, Silver's model favors her to win Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump is favored to win Pennsylvania.

Of the other battleground states, Silver's model currently suggests Trump is likely to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

These predictions are largely consistent with state polling averages reported by FiveThirtyEight.

The likely election winner has fluctuated repeatedly since Harris became her party's presumptive nominee in July, according to Silver's model. Trump's chances of winning exceeded Harris's October 17th.

The polls this election cycle have been remarkably close. In the key battleground states, candidates held each other by razor-thin margins, often within the polls' margin of error.

That means anything can happen on Election Day – a landslide for either candidate or a closely contested race.

There's no exact definition of what constitutes a “landslide,” but political scientist Gerald Hill previously told The Associated Press that “it usually means exceeding expectations and being somewhat underwhelming.”

Silver's model defines a landslide as a double-digit popular vote lead. By this definition, the model predicts Harris' chances of achieving this are 1.1 percent and Trump's are 0.1 percent.

In a comment for The New York Times In the study published Oct. 23, Silver wrote, “In an election where the seven battleground states are all within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only reliable forecast.”

He said that while the data pointed to a coin-flip race, his gut feeling suggested Trump would be re-elected.

“But I don’t think you should give any value to anyone’s gut feeling, including mine,” he added.

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns seeking comment.