DraftKings Tournament Picks for Week 9: High Upside Targets

stack

Dak Prescott ($6,300) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) + Jake Ferguson ($5,100)

The Cowboys' offense was great after last season's bye, averaging 32.3 points per game. Prescott averaged 27.4 fantasy points in those 11 games; Lamb had an average score of 28.5.

Dallas came out of this year's bye and scored 24 points in San Francisco. Prescott and Lamb combined for 58.2 DraftKings points.

They have a chance to continue on Sunday against a Falcons pass defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. Atlanta ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 26th against WRs.

The over/under rating of 52 points in this game is the highest this week. And the Cowboys are 3-point underdogs, so there's a good chance they'll play from behind.

If Prescott scores a tournament-winning result, it will likely come through big passing numbers. (He only has 24 rushing yards all season.) That makes him a good double-stack candidate with Ferguson, who is averaging 7.4 targets per game on an 18% target share over the last five games. The Falcons rank 18th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Derek Carr ($5,600) + Chris Olave ($6,100)

The Saints offense isn't sneaking onto the field this week. But most of our competitors are known by RB Alvin Kamara.

He's a great piece. But this Carr + Olave stack gives us tremendous leverage on the field if the Saints TDs happen to come in the passing game.

The Panthers have been just as bad against the pass as they have been against the run this season. You go into week 9 sitting:

• 27. allowed in passing
• 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed
• 30th passing touchdown allowed
• 31st in pass defense DVOA
• 31st allowed in EPA per pass
• 30. Passing success rate allowed

If Carr delivers a tournament winning performance, he will most likely bring Olave with him. The absence of WR Rashid Shaheed makes Olave a problem. Last week he drew 14 targets for a 33% share.

• Jameis Winston ($5,400) + Cedric Tillman ($4,300)
• Gardner Minshew ($4,500) + Brock Bowers ($6,000)

Running backs

Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,800)

Everything is geared up for a big Kamara game on Sunday.

He's getting QB Derek Carr back. RBs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams are out. And he gets a Panthers defense that ranks bottom four in:

• Execute defensive DVOA
• EPA allows per rush
• Fast success rate allowed
• Adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs

Kamara has already scored 47 points this season and could have another must-have appearance this weekend.

James Conner, Cardinals ($6,600)

With Alvin Kamara priced above Conner and Chase Brown below, both should be very popular and I expect Conner to get lost in the shuffle. That makes him an attractive tournament player considering his projected volume and matchup.

Conner continued to dominate the Cardinals' rushing effort over the past two weeks, totaling 39 carries.

He also saw an increase in pass usage, recording two of his three highest pass percentages of the season. This resulted in seven goals being scored in these two games.

Only eight RBs have averaged more expected PPR points per game than Conner over the past two weeks.

Sunday features a Bears run-funnel defense that ranks sixth in pass defense (DVOA) but 22nd in run defense. They allowed 4.7 yards per carry to the RBs.

Conner should be the focal point of the offense in this case.

Chase Brown, Bengals ($5,900)

We currently predict that Brown will have an 18% ownership percentage in large-field tournaments. I expect it to be closer to 50% on small fields.

It's not a situation I want to make go away. This is an explosive defense that will likely provide 20+ chances for a team with an implied total of 26.25 points against the Raiders' 29th-ranked RB defense.

There are plenty of other strong RB options this week that Brown doesn't have must play. But I will try to play him more than just on the field.

• Kyren Williams, Rams ($8,000)
• Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,400)
• Ken Walker, Seahawks ($7,300)
• De'Von Achane, Dolphins ($6,700)
• Tyrone Tracy, Giants ($5,500)

Wide receiver

AJ Brown, Eagles ($8,100)

The Eagles have been extremely run-heavy in recent games. But if there's a place for them to lean into the pass, this is it. They get a Jaguars team on Sunday that ranks 11th in run defense DVOA but is last in pass defense DVOA.

It's a huge mismatch in Brown's favor against this secondary, which ranks 24th in Pro Football Focus coverage and 29th in adjusted fantasy points for WRs.

Brown has already scored 25 DraftKings points in two of four games this season.

Jalen Coker, Panthers ($3,600)

If we want to pay for guys like Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown, we need to save money elsewhere. Coker can help.

The rookie is on the rise, posting a 4-78-1 line on six goals last week against a strong Broncos passing defense.

WR Diontae Johnson is now in Baltimore and WR Adam Thielen is out again. HC Dave Canales confirmed this week that Coker will play a similar role going forward.

Last week, he ran a route on 80% of pass plays and was in the slot 71% of the time.

He faces a Saints defense on Sunday that ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers.

• CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($8,800)
• Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,600)
• Malik Nabers, Giants ($7,500)
• Drake London, Falcons ($6,700)
• Chris Olave, Saints ($6,100)
• Ladd McConkey, Chargers ($5,600)
• Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($5,500)
• Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5,400)
• Jakobi Meyers, Raiders ($5,300)
• Cedric Tillman, Browns ($4,300)
• Jake Bobo, Seahawks ($3,400)

Tight ends

Taysom Hill, Saints ($3,800)

Here's another way to make the chalky Alvin Kamara big.

If Kamara disappoints on Sunday, there's a good chance Hill will steal the rushing touchdowns. He already has two touchdown games on his resume this season.

The Saints will be without Nos. 2 and 3 RBs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams this weekend. They have a high implied point total of 25.5 against a Panthers defense that allows a league-high 14 rushing scores.

• Brock Bowers, Raiders ($6,000)
• Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,800)
• Evan Engram, Jaguars ($5,300)
• Jake Ferguson, Cowboys ($5,100)
• Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,900)
• Jonnu Smith, Dolphins ($3,500)
• Mike Gesicki, Bengals ($3,100)
• AJ Barner, Seahawks ($2,600)

Defense/Special Teams

• Commanders ($3,400)
• Chargers ($3,300)
• Eagles ($3,100)
• Bills ($3,000)
• Bears ($2,800)
• Giant ($2,300)

Jared Smola,
Senior Analyst

Jared has been with the Draft Sharks since 2007. He is now a lead analyst, leading the preseason and weekly forecasts that power your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks first among 133 analysts in draft ranking accuracy.