Election Day 2024 Forecast: Could Weather Have an Impact on Election Trends?

WASHINGTON – Weather forecasts for Election Day will be calm for most of the country, with much of the east and west coast remaining dry, but a cold front stretching across the interior will be the focal point for isolated showers and thunderstorms.

The frontal boundary means cities like Chicago, St. Louis and even Tulsa, Oklahoma, will be in the rain zone, and cooler air will prevail over much of the Rocky Mountains and Plains behind the front.

---

According to the FOX Forecast Center, battleground states including Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the northwest corner of Pennsylvania, are likely to see rain on Election Day.

Political experts claim that weather conditions – whether rainy or sunny – on election day can influence voter enthusiasm. But with more than half the country voting before November 5, Election Day is increasingly resembling an extended election season rather than just a single, important day.

A 2007 university study found that Republican-leaning voters were more likely to turn out in rainy weather than Democrats. Researchers found that turnout fell by about 1% per inch of rain and that snowfall reduced turnout by nearly half a percent per inch of rain.

With the majority of voters using early voting methods, millions will have little to do on Election Day other than relax and watch the results.

Dr. David Richards, an associate professor and political chair at the University of Lynchburg, has been monitoring election trends for decades and says changes are afoot.

“In-person early voting has skyrocketed as people are kind of getting used to the idea that they still have time to vote,” Richards said. “They don’t have to wait and do it on Election Day — like they have traditionally done. It’s a generational shift that took a few election cycles for people to get comfortable with.”

As for the temperature, most of the country will see warmer-than-average readings, with pockets of cool air forming over Utah and the western United States

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Impact of Hurricanes on Recent Elections

Hurricanes Helene and Milton left a path of destruction through several battleground states and led to changes in the voting process.

In hard-hit North Carolina, the State Board of Elections made it easier for residents of the 13 hardest-hit counties to vote.

The North Carolina State Board of Elections reports that the effort is to allow voters to pick up their mail-in ballots at their local county election office up to the day before the election and return them to any polling place or county election office by November 5th.

Additional precautions have been taken in Florida and Georgia to ease the stress of voting for hurricane victims.

Despite the damage caused by the multi-billion dollar disasters, the impact on the electoral system appears to be small and does not prevent people from voting.

“I think it's interesting to see that the turnout doesn't seem to be depressing and that we saw these record first days in North Carolina and Georgia, which were hit hardest by the first storm,” Richards said.

In fact, these disasters may actually act as riots among likely voters.

Richards suggested that residents could vote early to avoid falling into the trap of a future disaster or to gauge the government's response.

Major disasters such as widespread flooding and hurricanes have long influenced voter enthusiasm leading up to important elections.

For example, FEMA's response to Hurricane Andrew in South Florida in 1992 was widely viewed by the public as inadequate, leaving the state's 25 electoral votes up for debate.

Likewise, in 2012, Superstorm Sandy swept through the eastern United States and influenced the re-election of President Barack Obama.

At the time, national polls showed that hurricane response was an important factor for 15% of voters.

Despite five landfall systems during the 2024 hurricane season, Richards noted that extensive research will likely be needed to determine whether extreme weather conditions had an impact on the electorate.

Weather can affect voter turnout

Dealing with election stress

One of the main questions Richards gets from his students and the general public is waiting for the votes to be tabulated.

Many involve what he calls a “doomsday scrolling” through social media to figure out which candidate might come out on top – something the politics professor advises against and offers some guidance.

“I would encourage people to go outside. Politics is very important, but at the end of the day there are many things in life that are important – many other things to focus on: your job, your family, your free time.” “There will be a winner, and there will be a loser. And it’s not the end of the world.”

For those interested in the results, Richards said there are some races to watch in Virginia and across the country that resemble a barometer for the country.

In the Commonwealth of Virginia, the Second Congressional District for the House of Representatives will be an important race to watch – the district is usually a barometer for which party will have control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

And in Ohio and Montana, incumbent senators are running for re-election, which could help shape the balance of power in the upper house of the U.S. Congress.

To view the election results live: Click here.