Electoral College map switches state to Donald Trump

A key swing state has flipped in favor of Donald Trump, according to a new Electoral College map projection.

RealClearPolitics' poll tracker shows that with no contested states in Michigan, Michigan has swung in Trump's favor, with the former president now half a point ahead of his opponent Kamala Harris in the state at 48.5 percent, to their 48 percent. It's the first time since July 29 that the tracker shows Trump in the state that Joe Biden flipped to blue in 2020.

Trump's lead in Michigan means the pollster now predicts the former president will win the election with 296 Electoral College votes to Harris' 242 votes. Michigan has 15 electoral votes. Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Recent polls have put Trump ahead in the state, including a poll conducted between Oct. 3 and Oct. 7 by Quinnipiac University that had him 4 points ahead in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead when third-party candidates were included. The poll surveyed 1,007 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Other recent polls, including one from Trafalgar Group and another from AtlasIntel, also have Trump leading by as much as four points among likely voters in the state.

However, other aggregators still see Harris leading the state. For example, 538's poll tracker shows the vice president ahead of Trump by one point, while pollster Nate Silver's tracker puts her ahead by 1.4 points. Both trackers show that Harris' lead has decreased by 0.2 to 0.7 points in a month.

Meanwhile, some individual polls have also shown Harris with a lead, including a poll conducted by Research Co. between Oct. 5 and Oct. 7 that showed her leading by three points among 450 likely voters – a lead within the margin of error Poll of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

Another poll conducted between September 27 and October 2 by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed Harris ahead by 2 points among 839 likely voters – a lead also within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.1 points.

While Harris' lead in the state may be marginal, the 538 forecast still shows her winning in Michigan, where poll aggregators show her leading since late July.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the battleground states to secure victory, while Trump needs 51. If Harris won the 2nd District in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, she would meet the electoral threshold needed to win.

Without Michigan, Harris would not have enough votes to secure victory even if she won the 2nd District in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska, which would give her 37 electoral votes. The 538 forecast has Harris winning in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska's 2nd District, which would give her victory, while Trump will win in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

RealClearPolitics' forecast shows Harris will win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd District if there are no contested states, while Trump will win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him an overall victory .

The close margins in these key battlegrounds show that the race remains fiercely competitive and everyone can win. 538 recently noted that this narrow margin could lead to the closest presidential contest in nearly 150 years.