Everything in danger?

Posted on Monday November 4, 2024

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by Herald Boas

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Press

Luckily, since there are only a few days left, it's almost over. Maybe each side has one more PR move left, but given the tens of millions of votes already cast, a “surprise” has much less value than in previous cycles.

In Europe, whose media almost exclusively favors the US Democratic Party candidate because Trump is not represented there, there is, as I have learned from very reliable continental sources, fear and pessimism that “The Don” will triumph. But given the European Union's recent sharp turn to the right, I suspect there would also be great celebration if Donald Trump wins.

Assuming the result is decisive and immediately clear, there will then be a period of necessary discussion about media bias, the role of major campaign spending and voting procedures. If the result remains unresolved due to a period of recounts, allegations of fraud, lawsuits and widespread protests, any serious post-election discussions will be postponed and the nation will face a crisis likely even more severe than in 2000 and 2020, when the… The results were delayed.

In 2012 and 2022, Republicans entered the final election weekend quite optimistic, but came away quite disappointed with the actual results the following Tuesday. Some GOP supporters fear similar overconfidence in 2024. Republican and independent voters will need to turn out heavily at the polls to run for Trump-Vance to avoid unexpected losses.

A very encouraging development this cycle has been the decision by many conservative voters to cast their ballots early (as many Democrats have done in recent cycles). But as wise political observers have pointed out, this phenomenon should not be overstated. Other practically positive developments this cycle include the use of so-called ballot harvesting by conservatives and the widespread use of poll watchers, lawyers and judges by Republicans to prevent any attempts at voter fraud.

It must be said that every party base will vote for their party's candidate. Some anti-Trump Republicans and moderate Democrats will switch sides, vote for third-party candidates or stay home, but it seems clear that every party base is now energized. As almost always, in the so-called “swing” states, independents and other undecided voters will make the difference. Most pollsters say these voters ultimately lean toward Republicans, and many pundits disagree, but pollsters and pundits have occasionally been wrong in the past.

In many ways, it was a campaign cycle like no other. The so-called rules of campaign engagement have perhaps never been broken, changed or ignored before. The partisan parties appear to be more divided than ever before. Given the challenges and confrontations facing the nation from adversaries and competitors around the world, the election outcome appears more critical than ever.

Those who argue that there is not much difference between the parties and their electoral lists have no credible argument in 2024. Conservatives and liberal-progressives have starkly different ideas about economics and fiscal policy, education, government regulation, taxes, the role of government bureaucracy, and crime and public safety, as well as the Middle East and other foreign policy.

The very high level of dissatisfaction among voters with “the direction of the country” is consistently found in all public surveys. Economic anxiety is widespread. Parents are under siege. Our armed forces are weakened and demoralized.

With so much at risk, the world's oldest continuous representative democracy is going to the polls.

Herald Boas is a writer for AMAC Newsline.