Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Will JK Dobbins return to his early season form?

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have very little time to observe and analyze a player's performance. But fear not—Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be—if at all.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed has averaged just 3.5 goals over the last two games and his route participation (61%) fell below that of Romeo Doubs (93%) and Christian Watson (79%) last week. He has also gained zero rushing yards in the last three games. Reed remains the WR14 in fantasy points per game this season, but he is the WR53 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of his now-healthy teammate Dontayvion Wicks (WR56). Reed ranks 42nd in targets (41) and 50th in target percentage (17.6%). He has only seen four targets inside the red zone this season.

Green Bay's pass catchers are healthier than ever, but Jordan Love's status for Week 9 is in question after he suffered a groin injury last game (the Packers may be more inclined to deal him with an impending bye in Week 10 protect). Green Bay posted a staggering -18% dropback rate above expectations in two games with Malik Willis earlier this year, and last week he attempted just five passes in two quarters.

Reed is a great player who has posted the second-best passer rating (141.0) when targeted this season, and he has an exciting matchup this week against a Lions defense that is giving him by far the most fantasy points brings in. He will undoubtedly have more top weeks this year.

But a lack of volume (and the possibility of Love missing another game) makes Reed more of a mid-depth WR2 going forward.

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JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

Dobbins converted 24 opportunities for just 68 yards against a vulnerable Saints defense last week. Javonte Williams scored his only two touchdowns of the season last week against New Orleans. Any back can have a subpar game, but there is concern that Dobbins will be exhausted after Achilles tendon surgery. He posted a YPC of 9.9 and led the league in forced missed tackles per attempt in the first two weeks (against the Panthers and Raiders), but he has since managed a lowly YPC of 3.1, leading in five games 45th place at MTF/att.

Dobbins wouldn't be the first RB to flash for a few games after Achilles tendon surgery only to fade afterward (James Robinson was the most recent example). But that's pure speculation, and Dobbins' role remains elite; Last week, he posted season-highs in snap share (81%) and targets (seven). However, Kimani Vidal is currently emerging as an alternative.

Additionally, Justin Herbert is third in pass attempts since leaving LA after previously being one of the league's most run-heavy teams. The volume has been good, but there is some concern given Dobbins' extreme decline in performance as a result of major surgery, a change in LA's offensive philosophy and a tougher upcoming schedule.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Waddle disappointed in Tua Tagovailoa's return last week, finishing as WR57 while making a poor drop downfield in a favorable matchup against a struggling Tyreek Hill. While one game is meaningless, Waddle now has a low target share of 15% over Tagovailoa's 100 pass attempts this season; Hill has a target share of 28%, and De'Von Achane's is also higher at 19%.

Nevertheless, there is reason for optimism. Miami scored a season-high 27 points in Tagovailoa's return last week as the Dolphins' neutral pass rate went from worst to nearly first. Waddle had 122 targets and 1,380 receiving yards in his last 17 games with Tagovailoa before last week, and there's also the possibility of upside if Hill is sidelined.

Still, Miami's offense hasn't looked nearly as explosive this season even with Tagovailoa, and Achane's emergence in the passing game will continue to impact Waddle's volume. Waddle will be fine and remains a top-25 WR, but those who drafted him obviously have concerns about expecting more in 2024.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud appeared on the Panic Meter last week and things have only gotten worse. He finished the season as QB26 in a very favorable home game, losing to Stefon Diggs. Stroud has only finished in the top five fantasy quarterbacks twice throughout his career, most recently in Week 12 of last season.

This isn't necessarily Stroud's fault, as Houston's offensive line and injuries have been major contributors. Stroud has posted a career YPA of 8.0 and an average of 270.4 passing yards in games with Nico Collins, but those numbers drop to 6.8 and 229.8 when Collins is not on the field (h/t RotoViz). Diggs is out this year with a torn ACL and Tank Dell continues to look like another player returning from a broken leg; Despite the departures of Collins and Diggs, Dell posted a season-low 11.1% target share last week. Dell ranks 86th in yards per route run this season (1.10).

Stroud has a tough matchup Thursday night against a Jets secondary that is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (180.0), so he belongs on the fantasy bench. Collins' possible return in Week 10 will certainly help (and the schedule will be more favorable), but Stroud is the QB22 this season, so his fantasy managers may already be in the coping phase.