FDU poll shows Kim in prime position to become New Jersey's next U.S. senator

According to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) U.S. Senate poll in New Jersey, Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is leading Republican Curtis Bashaw by a whopping 57% to 39%, providing further evidence that Kim is overwhelmingly likely to have a lead to be New Jersey's next senator.

Kim, a three-term congressman from Burlington County, also has noticeably high approval ratings in the poll: 53% of registered voters view him favorably and just 16% view him unfavorably, while Bashaw, a hotel developer from Cape May, has a more positive opinion, with a mixed rating of 31%. up to 21%. 31% don't know enough to have an opinion about Kim, and 48% have no opinion about Bashaw – which could be evidence of the relatively low visibility the Senate campaign has had among some voters.

“New Jersey is a costly state to campaign in, and this Senate race simply wasn’t as visible,” FDU poll director Dan Cassino said in a poll press release. “Voters on Long Island see more ads for House candidates than for the Kim Bashaw race, so it’s not surprising that they don’t know much about the candidates.”

Kim's 18-point lead is consistent with previous Senate races in New Jersey; Democrats have not lost a state Senate election since 1972 and have won every one by double digits since 2006. In 2020, Senator Cory Booker defeated Republican Rik Mehta 57% to 41%, in 2018 Senator Bob Menendez won re-election for the seat Kim and Bashaw are now running for by a margin of 54% to 43% – and only after the Republican Bob Hugin had invested in his private assets Spending $36 million Attack Menendez as a crook.

Bashaw also used about $2 million of his own money to link Kim to the now-disgraced Menendez, saying the congressman would be a rubber stamp for Democrats in Washington. But Kim's message of anti-corruption and civility in politics – which he also used to great effect in his Democratic primary campaign against first lady Tammy Murphy and the state's Democratic bosses – appears to have had a larger impact nationwide.

“Bashaw’s strategy was to make Kim appear unacceptably liberal to New Jersey voters, and that simply didn’t happen,” Cassino said. “To win, Bashaw will need to get a lot of votes from moderate and Democratic voters, and we just don’t see that in the data.”

Other recent polling data from New Jersey has put Kim in a similarly strong position. A poll by GOP pollster Cygnal put Kim in 19 points ahead nationally51% to 32%, and the Monmouth University Polling Institute found Kim increased by six points in the 7th Congressional District, which is much more Republican than the state as a whole.

Both polls also showed Kim doing significantly better than Vice President Kamala Harris, who is expected to lead New Jersey but may do so less convincingly than Kim. Today's publication by the FDU did not contain any figures on the presidential election campaign.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted Oct. 20-27 with a sample size of 806 registered New Jersey voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.