Final swing state polls in November 2024: Presidential election too close

Democratic statewide candidates have the edge over Republican candidates

The latest swing state polls from Emerson College Polling/The Hill continue to conclude the race is too close to call. In Michigan, Vice President Harris has a two-point lead over former President Trump, 50% to 48%. The race is even in Nevada and Wisconsin, with 48% in Nevada and 49% in Wisconsin. Trump has a one-point lead in Georgia (50% to 49%), North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Pennsylvania (49% to 48%). In Arizona, Trump has a two-point lead, 50% to 48%. All surveys are within the margin of error of each survey.

“The gender gap on the ballot continues to create a stark divide in voting intentions,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In Michigan, where Harris has a lead over Trump, and Wisconsin, men and women break in opposite directions: men for Trump by 12 and women for Harris by 11. In states where Trump has a slight lead, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania .” “Men support Trump by a larger majority than women support Harris.”

Gender difference

• Arizona: Men have a seven-point lead on Trump (53% to 46%), while women have a two-point lead on Harris (50% to 48%).
• Georgia: Among men, Trump is at 16 (58% to 42%), among women, Harris is at 12 (55% to 43%).
• Michigan: Among men, Trump is at 12 (55% to 43%), among women, Harris is at 11 (55% to 44%).
• In Nevada, the male vote for Trump is nine (53% to 44%), while the female vote for Harris is six (51% to 45%).
• North Carolina: Men approve of Trump by nine votes (53% to 44%), while women vote for Harris by five votes (52% to 47%).
• Pennsylvania: Among men, Trump is at 17 (58% to 41%), among women, Harris is at 13 (55% to 42%).
• Wisconsin: Among men, Trump is at 12 (55% to 43%) and among women, Harris is at 11 (55% to 44%).

Nationwide elections

• Arizona U.S. Senate, 50% support Democrat Ruben Gallego, 45% support Kari Lake. Five percent are undecided.
  • Gallego's support held steady since last month, while Lake's support rose two points, from 43% to 45%.

• Michigan U.S. Senate: 49% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 45% support Republican Mike Rogers and 6% are undecided.
  • Slotkin's support held steady since the last Michigan poll, while Rogers' support rose from 44% to 45%.

• Nevada U.S. Senate: 50% support incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, 44% support Republican Sam Brown, 3% plan not to vote for either candidate and 3% are undecided.

• North Carolina Governor: 52% support Democrat Josh Stein, 40% support Republican Mark Robinson, 4% plan to support someone else and 4% are undecided.
  • Since the last poll for the gubernatorial race, support for Stein and Robinson has each increased by one point.
  • Slightly more than one in ten (11%) of Trump voters also supported Stein in the vote in North Carolina, the highest share of split-ticket votes in the swing states.

• Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, 47% support Republican David McCormick, 6% are undecided.
  • Since October, support for McCormick has increased by one point, while support for Casey has remained at 47%.

• Wisconsin U.S. Senate: 51% support incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, 45% support Republican Eric Hovde, 4% are undecided.
  • This has changed since the last Emerson poll, which had a tie at 48% each: Baldwin gained three points while Hovde lost three points.

Abortion on the ballot

In Arizona, 57% of voters plan to vote for Arizona Proposition 239, a constitutional amendment that would provide a fundamental right to abortion until the fetus is viable, around 24 weeks of pregnancy. 36 percent plan to vote against, 7 percent are not sure.

• Of voters who support the constitutional amendment establishing abortion rights, 76% support Harris and 23% support Trump. Of voters planning to vote no, 92% support Trump and 7% support Harris.

Also in Nevada, 56% plan to support the state's constitutional amendment providing a fundamental right to abortion, while 35% are opposed and 9% are unsure.

METHODOLOGY

The sample size for Arizona is n=900, with a credibility interval similar to a poll's margin of error of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Michigan is n=790, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=860 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Nevada is n=840, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%.

The data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, partisan affiliation/registration, education, and voter registration/turnout data by state.

The survey was conducted by contacting respondents' mobile phones via MMS-to-Web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response, with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The surveys were offered in English. The data was collected between October 30 and November 2, 2024. The polls were conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range and you should understand that with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the rating range 1 in 20 times.

FULL RESULTS