Fox News Poll: The presidential race in Pennsylvania is neck-and-neck

Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been campaigning hard in Pennsylvania, and the latest Fox News poll shows the race is as close as it gets.

The poll released Wednesday finds Harris and Trump tied at 48% each among likely voters in the expanded ballot, while just 3% say they support a third party. In September, Trump had a one-point lead over Harris and 4% preferred someone else.

In the two-way match among likely voters, Trump is 1 point higher (50% vs. 49% Harris).

However, among registered voters, Harris is ahead by two points in both the expanded ballot and the head-to-head comparison. All registered and likely voter results are within the margin of error.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton by less than a point in 2016, while President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by just over a point in 2020.

The remainder of the analysis focuses on likely voters and the expanded ballot (unless otherwise noted).

One of the reasons the race is so close is that there is a narrower (and more equal) gender gap here than nationally or in other states – Harris is up by 4 points among women, while Trump is up among women men increased by 4 points.

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS THAN TRUMP SUPPORTERS THINK VOTERS WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY AND WILL ACCEPT THE RESULT

Unlike some other states, Harris does well with voters under 35. She is 18 points ahead of Trump among young voters, an improvement from her 14-point lead last month. She also has a 5-point lead among voters aged 65 and over (it was a draw in September).

There are huge education and community gaps. White voters with a degree trail Harris by 13 points, while white voters without a degree vote for Trump by 15 points. In urban areas, Harris leads by 30 points, while Trump has an 18-point lead among rural voters.

Another plus for Trump is that he is favored by 5 points (within the margin of error) in the small subgroup of independents.

Still, more Democrats support Harris (93%) than Republicans support Trump (89%), and in the small subset of non-MAGA Republicans, over a third (35%) support Harris (Trump still gets a 59%) majority.

As has been the case throughout the election cycle, voters believe Trump can handle the economy better, although by a smaller margin of 4 points than nationally (+7). That's also down from an 8-point lead last month.

Additionally, 44% of respondents feel they are behind financially, which is about the same as it has been since February, but far higher than the 26% who felt in September 2020.

“The reality is that the race in Pennsylvania has changed little throughout the campaign,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Given the negative perception of the economy and her position as vice president, it is somewhat surprising that Harris was able to convince many voters in Pennsylvania to improve the financial situation of the middle class. But if Trump can reduce defection rates among non-MAGA Republicans, there's a good chance he'll come around.”

Trump is considered better at dealing with immigration with 16 points and the Middle East conflict with 7 points.

Harris is considered better at handling election integrity (+7) and abortion (+20).

Among those who trust Trump on immigration, 13% support Harris in voting, while 15% of those who trust Harris on abortion support Trump.

In terms of traits, voters prefer Harris because he has the right temperament (+7), helps the middle class (+6), protects American democracy (+5), and fights for people like you (+4).

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Trump has small advantages in being a strong leader (+3) and saying what he believes (+2). Voters are divided over who would bring about the necessary changes.

“Pennsylvania clearly has a problem ahead of the election, but what little movement there is seems to be toward Harris,” Anderson said. “I wouldn't call it a swing, but perhaps leaning toward it in protecting democracy and temper could have consequences if Trump continues to talk about the enemy within and retaliation for political rivals.”

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A few more things…

– Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Harris has a 49% favorable rating and a 51% unfavorable rating, for a net rating of -2. For Trump the score is -7 (46% positive, 53% negative). Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has a net rating of +1 (47-46%), while Ohio Senator JD Vance is below that by 4 (45-49%). President Joe Biden fares worst with a net rating of -18 (41-59%).

— A quarter of likely voters in Pennsylvania say they have already voted, and they supported Harris over Trump by 35 points. Among the 6 in 10 who have yet to vote and are certain they will, Trump leads by 12 points.

– Republican candidate Dave McCormick has closed the gap in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey still leads McCormick, but by just 2 points (50% to 48%), down from a 9-point lead in September (53% to 44%). This can be partly attributed to Casey losing ground in the women's race – he is 6 points ahead today, having been 21 points ahead in September.

CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND Crosstabs

This Fox News poll was conducted October 24-28, 2024, co-led by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), and includes interviews with a sample of 1,310 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly drawn from a nationwide voter file were selected. Respondents spoke to live interviewers via landlines (196) and cell phones (766) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (348). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of 1,057 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model based on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance and marital status.