Harris' election chances outperform Trump at PredictIt

Topline

Presidential election prediction markets continue to trend in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, whose odds on a betting site have overtaken those of former President Donald Trump for the first time in nearly a month, as polls point to a virtually tied race between the two candidates.

Important facts

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Big number

49%. These are the chances that FiveThirtyEight's poll-based model gives Harris. That means she would win 49 times out of 100 election simulations, less than Trump's 50%. The Economist projects Harris to have a 52% to 48% lead over Trump, meaning she would win 52 times out of 100 simulations.

Important background

Amid a tight race between Harris and Trump, election betting is growing in popularity as the odds shift in Trump's favor. Some experts claim that the betting market is an indicator of the election outcome, while others believe that bettors have an incentive to turn their predictions into reality. Nate Silver, a Polymarket analyst and pollster whose latest forecast favors Harris, points out that individual traders are likely leaning to the right politically, which could result in the odds increasing in Trump's favor. Some markets have recently launched their own election betting platforms, including Robinhood and Interactive Brokers, while sites like Kalshi have received federal preemption authorization to allow users to bet on US elections

Further reading

ForbesHarris election betting odds rise to a one-week high – but Trump is still the market's favoriteFrom Derek SaulForbesTrump's Polymarket Odds Are Over 60%: How Election Betting Markets Differ From PollsFrom Derek Saul
ForbesRobinhood launches presidential election betting market, allowing users to bet on Harris and TrumpFrom Derek Saul