Harris extends her lead over Trump in Virginia to 10 points, a new Roanoke College • Virginia Mercury poll says

In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead over former President Donald Trump (51-41%) in Virginia. a new survey published Friday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver are both at 2%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 1% of the vote.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao, a retired U.S. Navy captain, 51-40%, the poll showed.

Friday's poll marks a significant expansion of Harris' lead over a previous Roanoke College survey starting August 20, when the Democratic candidate trailed her Republican opponent by just three points (47-44%) in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia. Kaine's 11-point lead over Cao remains unchanged.

The new poll is not good news for the Trump campaign, which will host a high-risk rally Saturday at the Civic Center in Salem, where the Republican candidate plans to make his case to Virginians for the last time before Tuesday's election.

In recent weeks, some leading Republicans have claimed that Virginia is reeling due to a heated base and tightening poll numbers could be in play for Trumpwho lost in the Commonwealth in both 2016 and 2020.

However, according to Friday's poll, just 2% of likely voters say they are still undecided four days before the election, and another 2% say they will vote for someone other than the five candidates on the ballot. Just under half (47%) say they are almost certain to vote, while 40% say they have already voted. Nearly a quarter (24%) still plan to vote before Election Day.

“Kamala Harris extended her narrow lead in the August Roanoke College poll,” said Harry Wilson, senior political analyst at IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.

“It claims 95% of Democrats and is at 49% to 36% of Independents. Trump has the support of 90% of Republicans, but that may not be enough to win in Virginia.”

With so few undecided voters, it would be a “tough climb for Trump,” Wilson said. “Democrats continue to take advantage of early voting. Republicans are catching up, but they need massive turnout on Election Day.”

The survey also found that a large majority (85%) of those who have not yet voted are very confident about their decision to vote, with a further 9% somewhat confident. Two-thirds (66%) said they were very enthusiastic about the choice, with another 17% saying they were somewhat enthusiastic.

43% of respondents cited the economy as the most important issue. Abortion (20%) and immigration (12%) were more likely to be cited as important than foreign affairs (8%) and crime (3%).

The poll goes on to say that likely voters trust Harris to do a better job on abortion (57% compared to 36% for Trump), but the candidates are viewed about equally on other issues (48% on immigration). ; Harris favored 49%). 45% on both crime and foreign policy; and 49% to 46% think Trump is doing a better job on the economy.

When asked if the candidate understands and cares about people like him, only 37% think Trump understands and cares about them, compared to 46% for Harris. Respondents have very different opinions about the impact of the federal government: 44% think the government makes their lives worse and 40% think it makes their lives better.

The results of the Roanoke College survey agree with one thing Poll from October 7th from the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University, which had Harris leading Trump by 11 points (52-41%) among likely voters in Virginia. The poll found that 4% of voters were still undecided four weeks before the election, while 3% said they would vote for someone else.

For its survey, the Institute for Politics and Opinion Research surveyed 851 people who were probably registered Virginia voters between October 25 and 29, 2024. The poll has a margin of error of 4.6%.