Harris' late surge in betting odds, fueled by an outlier poll, still favored Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris made a late attempt to close some of the gap between her and former President Trump in the election betting odds.

Trump leads Harris by 13.1 points in the presidential betting odds as of Monday morning and is ahead of Harris 56% to 42.9% in the Real Clear Politics betting average. But the number represents a late shift in the odds toward Harris, who trailed Trump by 28.9 percentage points just six days ago.

“Some of the polls are a little closer, so I think the better ones are seeing a little bit of momentum toward Harris,” Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital on Monday.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University on Sunday, November 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Michigan. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Lott's website shows a similar trend to the Real Clear Politics average: Trump had a 56.4% chance of winning the election as of Monday morning, while Harris has a 43.1% chance. But as Real Clear Politics' numbers show, Trump's lead has fallen by 5.3 percentage points in the last week.

Lott, who previously served as executive program producer for the FOX Business Network, said a lot of input can lead to changing betting behavior, pointing to a recent surprise Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll from Iowa that showed Harris with a lead of one Trump had a point in a state that few believed was in play for the Democrats.

While a poll could be dismissed as an outlier, Lott noted that the know-it-alls appear to have reacted to the news, with Trump's chances of winning the state falling from over 94% a week ago to 82.1% as of Monday morning.

“I think the kind of narrative behind this poll is that abortion is actually going to be the driving factor in this election, just like it was in 2022, and that women are going to take to the streets in droves and vote for Harris,” Lott said. “I think bettors at least accept some probability that that is true.”

Former President Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, Sunday, November 3. (AP/Matt Rourke)

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What Lott doesn't believe is behind the Harris surge is a small number of very large bets in their direction, pointing to betting platforms like PredictIt that limit the number of bettors and bet sizes to specific outcomes that have a similar outcome to each direction other platform tracked on its website.

Nevertheless, Lott warned against placing too much emphasis on late momentum when evaluating betting odds.

“Momentum doesn’t matter at all…for something like this,” Lott said. “In a market, the current price is the best indicator of the future price. If Harris is at the top, you could make a lot of money putting her at the top by putting your money on her now.”

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University on Sunday, November 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Michigan. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

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All in all, Lott expects it to be a close election, one that will likely come down to voter turnout.

“I expect Trump to still be slightly favored on Election Day,” Lott said.

Get the latest updates on the 2024 election, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital Election Center.