Harris narrowly leads Trump in blue wall states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: poll

A series of new polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a slim lead over former President Trump in the “blue wall.” Many forecasters say she must win to win the presidency.

Marist polls in the battlegrounds of Michigan and Pennsylvania released Friday show the Democratic vice president leading her Republican rival by two points in every state, 50% to 48%. A third poll of Wisconsin voters shows Harris with a lead of 3 percentage points, 51% to 48%.

All of these results are within the margins of error for the Marist polls, plus or minus 3.4 points for the Michigan and Pennsylvania polls and plus or minus 3.5 points for the Wisconsin poll. The polls were conducted October 27-30.

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Stickers and a poster supporting presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris are displayed outside the Bucks County Administration Voting On-Demand and Voting Center building in Doylestown, Pennsylvania, on Thursday. (Ed Jones/AFP)

The numbers point to another historically close election next Tuesday following the 2020 cycle, in which President Biden received the Electoral College votes he needed to unseat Trump by just 44,000 votes spread across key battleground states. Similarly, in 2016, Trump captured the White House with just under 78,000 votes in the three blue wall states.

The small lead Harris has is attributed to independent voters who appear to be moving in her direction in the final days of the election. Harris built a 6-point lead over Trump among independents in Michigan, 52% to 46%, improving from a 2-point lead in September. They also improved from a 4-point lead in the Wisconsin Independents in early September to a 6-point lead in late October.

HARRIS lays out her closing argument against Trump against the backdrop of the White House

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

But the most dramatic shift comes in Pennsylvania, where Marist finds a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris at 55% and Trump at 40%, compared to September, when Trump led Harris among independents 49% to 45% .

“The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three highly competitive so-called Blue Wall States,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “The good news for Harris is that she is more popular with independents and white voters than Biden was four years ago. The bad news is that the gender gap here isn't as big as it was in 2020, or indeed anywhere else now.”

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Former President Trump gestures after speaking at a campaign rally at the Resch Center in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Wednesday. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Additional polls released on Friday show a close race.

According to a national poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, a new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania with each 49% of the votes are tied.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, called the race a “mistake.”

“We have all the results within the margin of error … it's basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said, according to USA Today.

Additionally, the latest Detroit Free Press poll of likely voters in Michigan shows Harris with a 3 percentage point lead over Trump, bolstered by support from women and black voters, although the lead is still within plus or minus 4 -Pot limit of the survey is in error.

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The Rust Belt states that make up the Democratic Party's “blue wall” are worth a combined 44 Electoral College votes. Pennsylvania is the biggest prize with 19 votes, Michigan has 15 and Wisconsin holds 10.

If Harris can win Pennsylvania and another blue wall state, Trump would have to defeat the other swing states, including the Sun Belt states Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, to win the White House.

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