Harris or Trump? What the polls say one day before the 2024 election

The 2024 presidential election is just a day away. And the latest major national polls and swing state polls show the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is as close as ever.

Yahoo News/YouGov poll

According to the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of the cycle, Trump and Harris are now tied nationally.

The three previous Yahoo News/YouGov polls showed Harris with a slight lead over Trump among registered voters, ranging from one point after the Democratic National Convention in August to five points after their debate on September 10 (including third-party candidates were considered). .

Now Harris (47%) and Trump (47%) are tied on the same issue for the first time since Harris declared her candidacy on July 21.

The poll in Iowa is on everyone's lips

A new Des Moines Register poll conducted Oct. 28-31 and released over the weekend found Harris polling 47th among likely voters in Iowa, a state not considered in play for Democrats % ahead of Trump by 44%.

In June, the same poll showed Trump with an 18-point lead over President Biden. In September, it emerged that Trump had a 4-point lead over Harris.

“No one can say they saw this coming,” J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the survey, told the newspaper. “She has clearly made the leap into a leadership position.”

Trump dismissed the poll in a post on Truth Social, calling Selzer — a respected pollster who accurately predicted his victories in the Hawkeye State in 2016 and 2020 — a “Trump hater.”

National polls

Three websites that summarize national and state polls – the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times – currently have the national polling average as follows:

Silver Bulletin

• Harris: 48.5%

• Trump: 47.8%

Thirty-five

• Harris: 47.9%

• Trump: 47.0%

New York Times

All three show Harris with a slim lead of one percentage point or less in the popular vote – well within the aggregate margins of error.

Swing state polls

The same websites have the following polling averages in the seven battleground states:

Silver Bulletin

• Nevada: Trump 48.4% | Harris 48.0%

• Arizona: Trump 49.3% | Harris 46.7%

• Wisconsin: Harris 48.6% | Trump 47.8%

• Michigan: Harris 48.3% | Trump 47.2%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 48.4% | Harris 48.0%

• North Carolina: Trump 48.7% | Harris 47.6%

• Georgia: Trump 48.9% | Harris 47.6%

Thirty-five

• Nevada: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.3%

• Arizona: Trump 49.0% | Harris 46.5%

• Wisconsin: Harris 48.2% | Trump 47.3%

• Michigan: Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.1%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.7%

• North Carolina: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.2%

• Georgia: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.2%

New York Times

• Nevada: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

• Arizona: Trump 50% | Harris 47%

• Wisconsin: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• Michigan: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

• North Carolina: Trump 48% | Harris 48%

• Georgia: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

“With just one day left in the 2024 campaign, polls show one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American politics,” Times senior pollster Nate Cohn wrote on Monday. “In the history of modern polling, there has never been a race in which the final polls showed such a close fight.”

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – the so-called Democratic Blue Wall – are crucial for Harris. In 2016, Trump flipped all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden recaptured all three, with Pennsylvania claiming victory.

These are only average values, not forecasts or race calls. These are determined based on actual votes cast on or before election day.