Harris vs. Trump in Iowa: Nate Silver reacts to shocking Iowa poll: 'Someone's going to be wrong'

Reliable Conservation Iowa switches to Kamala Harris

A shocking poll shows conservatives are not in a good position in their sharp turnaround in Iowa, with Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points in the latest poll, calling it a “stunning turnaround” for Republicans. The final survey was published in the Des Moines Register newspaper. Kamala Harris is at 47 percent, Trump at 44 percent. J Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co, the company that conducted the survey, said: “It's hard to say that anyone foresaw this. She had clearly jumped into a leadership position.” And that happened in a month and a half, when Trump had a four-point lead over Harris and Trump was 18 points ahead of Biden in June.
Election expert Nate Silver reacted to the shocking poll, saying it means someone is going to be wrong. Anne Selzer of Selzer & Co has a long history of “defying conventional wisdom and being right,” Silver wrote.
“It took an incredible amount of courage to publish this poll because, let me put this as carefully as I can, if you had to consider the odds of winning, Selzer would probably be wrong this time. Harris' odds of winning Iowa have nearly doubled from 9 in our model “The odds increase from 6 to 17 percent tonight, which is not consistent with a similar trend,” Silver wrote.
The most recent poll of 808 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31 and found a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
What could have gone wrong in Iowa?
Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020, making Iowa a ruby ​​red state. But the nationally recognized poll shows Kamala Harris has won the support of Iowa women — likely on the abortion issue. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who abandoned his independent presidential campaign, remains on the ballot in Iowa and received 3 percent of the vote, down from 6 percent in September and 9 percent in June.
“The results come at a time when Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to influence the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the end of the presidential primary, and neither campaigner has established a ground presence in the U.S. state,” the Des Moines Register said.
The poll found that older women and politically independent women are driving the recent shift toward Harris. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that explain these numbers,” Selzer said.