Harris vs. Trump: Who is leading in the presidential polls?

Vice President Kamala Harris will compete against each other Donald Trump in just 22 days when Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

Multiple polls in the last week have shown a shrinking national lead for Harris, meaning wThere are only a few weeks leftthe race is getting closer and closer.

A number of polls have shown Trump leading in several swing states, with margins mostly too close to call. But with the latest, Trump could lose control of the older generation of voters New York Times Surveys It shows that the two candidates are separated by a hair – and Harris has a three-point lead.

How will Harris and Trump fare in November when nearly one in ten Republicans lean left?

The latest average of national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 2.4-point lead over Trump. On average, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls for several months.

In a new poll from ABC and Ipsos, Harris is only two points ahead with 49 percent of the vote and Trump is ahead at 47 percent.

The same poll in September showed a 4-point lead for Harris. The biggest shift has been among independent voters, as Harris' lead over them has fallen from 10 points to just 5 points.

The ABC poll isn't the only one showing a narrower lead for Harris. However, the reasons why Trump received more support in the last month are not entirely clear, as he did not attract much positive press after the presidential debate.

It's possible that Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance's more measured and measured performance in the debate appeased some Trump voters who were still undecided.

A central topic could be the current economic situation.

The same poll shows that the majority (59 percent) of Americans believe the U.S. economy is getting worse.

Trump remains the overall favorite for who can handle the economy better: 46 percent of voters prefer him to Harris (38 percent).

Despite the Harris campaign's best efforts, ABC polls have consistently shown Trump ahead on confidence in the economy and inflation.

Swing states

In Emerson College's most recent swing state polls, Trump is leading in four of seven swing states and Harris is leading in just one.

The polls show neither candidate leading by more than two points in any battleground state, meaning the race is still far too close to call just weeks before Election Day.

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In Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Trump is now far and away in the lead. Meanwhile, the candidates in Michigan – where Harris previously appeared to be leading – and Wisconsin are neck and neck.

The Independent's DC correspondent John Bowden reports that after Harris' honeymoon surge, the election is now “really anyone's call.”

The poll also found that the gender gap between Trump and Harris varies widely in each state.

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In Arizona, for example, there appears to be no significant difference between the way men and women vote. But in all other swing states there is a noticeable gender gap, particularly in Georgia, where Harris has a 12-point lead among women while Trump has a 14-point lead among men.

Demographics

The latest surveys from the New York Times/Siena College has Harris with a 3-point lead at 49 percent and Trump with 46 percent.

The strongest support group for Harris remains young voters and voters from non-white backgrounds. Trump's main base is white voters who are not college students.

Meanwhile, unfortunately for the Trump campaign, polling suggests that older generations of voters are no longer committed Republicans.

Trump's lead among both Generation X and Boomers has narrowed significantly over the last few years New York Times/Siena College Polls.

In fact, the two candidates are effectively tied in both groups, with Trump only having a lead of 1 and 2 points, within the margin of error of +-2.4.

While it remains to be seen how this will ultimately change, the Republican Party has won the over-65 demographic in every election since 2000.

Additionally, nearly one in ten (9 percent) of Republicans could vote for Harris and abandon party lines.

Of 898 Republicans surveyed in early October, 9 percent said they would vote for Harris next month. The same poll in September showed 5 percent.

The gender gap between Trump and Harris voters remains wide, with women leaning left and men leaning right.

Unstable polls in Florida

There has been a lot of interest in polling in Florida in recent weeks, with Harris appearing to want to undermine Trump's lead in his home state.

In particular, figures from the historically Republican pollster RMG Research showed that in Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago and several key Republicans, Trump received 50 percent of the vote and Harris received 48 percent of the vote.

However, there are new surveys from The New York Times show that Trump is clearly +13 points ahead in the Sunshine State with 55 percent, compared to Harris with 41 percent.

Although this does not agree with several recent polls in the state, New York Times Analyst Nate Cohn points out that this poll is not an outlier, saying, “Mr. Trump (is outperforming) in states where Republicans did well in the 2022 midterm elections – like Florida.” Therefore, this poll is not usual outliers.”

“If Florida becomes more Republican in 2024, it suggests that the upheavals during and after the pandemic have had a lasting impact on American politics.”

Vance wins the vice presidential debate and increases his popularity

Last week's debate between Ohio Senator Vance and Minnesota Governor Walz upended expectations; Betting markets and preliminary surveys are eyeing Walz as the presumed winner.

Not only did Vance “win” the debate, but his performance also appears to have done wonders for his public perception, which had been suffering for months.

Our pre-debate analysis showed Walz leading Trump, Vance and even Harris in popularity.

According to YouGov's latest poll, Vance received a popularity boost from last week's debate.

This puts Vance in a neutral position, while voters overall had a negative opinion of him of -11 percent before the debate.

Most interestingly, Vance improved his favorability with Democrats by a staggering +19 points. However, overall in this group it is still a net negative value of -52 percent.

Walz also received a more modest 3-point increase, reaching 15 percent approval in the YouGov poll.

Even though Walz's performance didn't win the debate, he is still the most popular candidate, and after the debate he even increased his favorability among independent voters.

However, he lost the approval of 7 percent of voters in his own party and still achieved a net positive position of 72 percent among Democrats.

Snap polls following the debate show that viewers were divided on both candidates, with Vance ahead by several points.

A CBS/YouGov poll found that 42 percent of viewers considered Vance the winner of the debate, compared to 41 percent for Walz.

However, it appeared that Walz was more in touch with average Americans and more likely to share voters' vision for America.

Key issues for voters

Regardless of political affiliation, the economy is the most important factor influencing people's choices in this election.

A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 2,500 U.S. adults through September 26 shows that abortion is the second most important issue for 37 percent of voters, followed by immigration at 34 percent.

For Trump voters, however, these priorities are reversed.

More than half (57 percent) of Trump voters see immigration as a top issue, given tensions over border security and recent debunked claims by Trump and Republicans about Haitian migrants.

Interestingly, health care and abortion are the second most important issues for Trump voters, at 23 percent each.

Although Trump has pushed for an overhaul of Obamacare, with attempts during his presidency failing, he failed to present an alternative health care policy at the presidential debate in September.

Meanwhile, abortion is the focus of Harris voters (55 percent), with Harris herself criticizing the abortion ban following the repeal of abortion bans Roe v. Wade.

Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40 percent), followed by housing (23 percent).

Who will vote?

A YouGov/economist In the poll, Harris is at 47 percent and Trump is at 44 percent, with a three-point lead among registered voters. The poll shows Harris with a large 25-point lead among young voters aged 29 and younger.

However, according to the same survey, younger generations are also the least likely to vote: 13 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed say they “maybe” will vote, while 3 percent will not vote or are still unsure.

That's 16 percent undecided or not voting, more than any other age group and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of the 18 to 29 year olds surveyed said they would definitely vote in November.

This compares to 77 percent of those aged 30 to 44, 85 percent of those aged 45 to 64 and 94 percent of those aged 65+.

Although the numbers may seem bleak and reflect a degree of reluctance among younger voters, the overall picture is significantly more engaged than in 2020.

The same YouGov/economist A poll at this point in the 2020 presidential election found that nearly a third of young people (27 percent) had not decided to vote in November, with 10 percent voting “maybe” and 17 percent “definitely/probably” not voting.