HawgBeat Staff Score Predictions: Arkansas at Mississippi State

The Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3, 2-2 SEC) play the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-6, 0-4 SEC) on Saturday at 11:45 a.m. CT at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi.

Arkansas was beaten 34-10 by LSU last Saturday at Razorback Stadium, while the Bulldogs put up a tough fight with a 34-24 home loss to Texas A&M.

Last season, Mississippi State defeated the Razorbacks in an ugly 7-3 game in Fayetteville. Both teams look very different now, especially the Bulldogs, who are now led by first-year head coach Jeff Lebby.

“They have a great football team,” Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman said Monday. “Sometimes everyone looks at someone's record and goes, 'Man, who did they play?' You know? And this is his first year there and so on. He plays against anyone, you know, 10 points or less, you know, whatever.

“But I met him through Kendal (Briles) and his father. Obviously because of that, wonderful great guy. And you can see what the team is like, how well they are trained and how well the team is progressing. And they're a scary team now when you go in there and play and the cowbell rings and everything. But I think Mississippi State hired the right guy and I think they're going to be really, really good this Saturday and move on.”

Arkansas is the 6.5-point favorite against the Bulldogs (BetSaracen). Here's how the HawgBeat staff predicts Saturday's game, which will be broadcast on SEC Network:

If ever there was a game the Razorbacks and Sam Pittman absolutely had to win, it would be this one. The Hogs need to win this game for many reasons. One of them is the simple fact that you can't lose to a Mississippi State team with a 1-6 record.

The Bulldogs have played tough football in recent weeks against good opponents like Texas A&M and Georgia, while the Razorbacks didn't look good at all against LSU.

Three weeks ago, Arkansas probably could have easily won this game. The Bulldogs will probably give it everything they can.

Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 24

I called this the easiest SEC game of the season for Arkansas in the preseason, even though it was played on the road, and while that's still true, I don't think the Razorbacks will have an easy time against the Bulldogs.

Jeff Lebby's team is starting to clear things up offensively, and it appears to be on the verge of an upset after playing competitively against teams like Georgia and Texas A&M. Will the Hogs fall into this trap?

Not only is this game crucial to Arkansas' postseason chances, but if it's lost, Sam Pittman's Hogs could really go off the rails to end the season. However, picking this game comes down to a simple equation: Year 5 (Pittman) vs. Year 1 (Lebby) and a veteran quarterback (Taylen Green) vs. a freshman quarterback (Michael Van Buren Jr.).

In an unsurprisingly strange back-and-forth ballgame, Arkansas surpassed the 30-point mark for the first time since the UAB game with a late fourth-quarter touchdown by freshman running back Braylen Russell. It's never pretty, but the Razorbacks pick up their second 10-point road SEC win of the season.

Arkansas 33, Mississippi State 23

It's no exaggeration to say that the Razorbacks and Sam Pittman absolutely need to win this game against Mississippi State. Sure, the win over Tennessee was fun, but the Hogs came back down to earth and got pummeled by LSU last weekend.

Mississippi State is 1-6, but don't let the record fool you. They have been doing well lately and their last two losses (Georgia and Texas A&M) were by just 10 points each.

It will be a tough road environment when the cowbells ring at Davis Wade Stadium, but I think the Hogs are built to withstand it. However, it's closer than fans would hope.

Arkansas 24, Mississippi State 21

This could be a big trap game for the Razorbacks, and if it goes the wrong way, Arkansas will likely stay out of trouble.

The Bulldogs have managed to score a few points in recent weeks, but the defense couldn't stop anyone. Head coach Jeff Lebby sent an email to students asking for their support with cowbells and attending this weekend's game, perhaps sensing that this could be his team's best chance at a conference game this season to win.

While I'm not particularly confident that Arkansas will pull out a win this weekend, I still think they're doing their job and know what's at stake. With some injuries Mississippi State has and a strong defensive performance from Arkansas, I'm going to give the Razorbacks the win.

Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 17

Things are never easy in Starkville. Arkansas fans remember last year's 7-3 stinkfest in Fayetteville and hope to move one step closer to bowl eligibility. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino will have to work his magic with a struggling backfield. Even though the Hogs are the 6.5 point favorite, I expect it to be a close game. I mean, this is Sam Pittman's Razorback team, after all. An early game takes away some of the cowbell fodder as the Hogs win.

Arkansas 30, Mississippi State 24

Mason Choate: 3-4 overall, 3-4 ATS

Riley McFerran: 3-4 overall, 3-4 ATS

Daniel Fair: 3-4 overall, 2-5 ATS

Jackson Collier: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS

Kevin Bohannon: 5-2 overall, 4-3 ATS

**CONVERSATION WITH ARKANSAS FANS ON TROUGH, HAWGBEAT'S PREMIUM MESSAGE BOARD**