Here are the top 5 U.S. economic issues for voters

With Surveys shows that Americans Rank of the economy Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making their biggest concerns in the Nov. 5 election, making last-minute pitches to convince voters that they know how to ensure the country's financial prosperity .

At the same time, many factors affecting the country's economic performance are beyond the president's control, from shocks like Russia's invasion of Ukraine to supply chain problems resulting from the pandemic that contributed to the highest U.S. inflation in 40 years.

Although experts largely Give the current economy high marksMost Americans disagree, with 52% telling Gallup they are worse off today than they were four years ago. That's partly due to partisan differences — Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they have more problems than they did in 2020, Gallup found — but economists say it's also tied to ongoing pain from the global disruptions caused by the pandemic.

“It's inflation, stupid!” wrote Bernard Yaros, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an Oct. 24 report, echoing the famous coinage of political strategist James Carville. “Inflation is the biggest issue of concern to voters and how it is perceived will determine the election.”

Here are five key factors that could influence voters' decisions when casting their ballot.

Inflation: A low rate, but prices remain high

Inflation across the country has cooled significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to 10% Three-year low of 2.4% in September, close to the Federal Reserve's annual target of 2%.

But if you ask almost any American whether inflation is still high, the answer is usually a resounding “yes.” In fact, more than one in four people surveyed by YouGov in August said they thought the current inflation rate was above 10%. The reason: the ongoing pressure of high prices. Although inflation has fallen close to pre-pandemic levels, prices have not declined and continue to impact consumers.

Let's take food prices, which rose by almost 1.3% in September compared to the previous year. While this rate is low, it still means shoppers will have to pay 1.3% more to fill their carts, on top of grocery prices that have already risen 26% since January 2020. This is difficult for many people to digest.

“If enough independent voters in battleground states still feel the shock of alarmingly high inflation in 2021 and 2022, former President Donald Trump is expected to win the Electoral College,” Yaros wrote.

In contrast, “If swing voters instead focus on the rate of change in consumer prices rather than the price level, they will be more inclined to support the vice president due to the significant moderation in inflation since mid-2022,” he noted.

Jobs and wages: winners and losers

The job market is strong, with the U.S. unemployment rate near a 50-year low. Still, the unemployment rate has risen slightly in recent months, one reason the Fed decided to cut interest rates last month. Since May 2023, wages have been growing faster than inflation and have helped lift some households out of the financial hole created by rising prices.

However, such statistics do not compensate for the long-term problems affecting some workers. Men without a college degree, for example, have lost economic ground in recent decades as the job market shifted toward jobs that require higher education and training.

White men without a bachelor's degree earned more than the typical worker in 1980, the New York Times found in a recent analysis of census data. But now this group of workers earns much less than the average American, while college-educated women have surpassed them in earnings.

White Americans without a college degree are more likely to say the economy is in bad shape than those with a bachelor's degree, and they are also more likely to support Trump, according to CBS News Surveys show. In a CBS News poll from Oct. 23 to 25, about 63% of whites without a college degree said they planned to vote for Trump, compared with 48% of those with a postsecondary degree.

Immigration: costs to the economy

Voters also rank immigration as a top issue, and Trump has stepped up his attacks on the Biden-Harris administration's record on illegal immigration and vowed to do so biggest deportation in American history if elected.

But this is also an economic problem, as there are more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, many of whom work in meatpacking plants, farms, construction sites and other jobs essential to the country's well-being.

According to Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, deporting these immigrants could lead to major economic headwinds. “Deporting migrants would be stagflationary for the U.S. economy,” he wrote on X in July. “The greater the restrictions and deportations, the more the recessionary effects outweigh the inflationary effects for the Fed.”

The deportation of millions of people would also cost taxpayers billions. A CBS News analysis suggests this would incur costs $20 billion for detention and deportation 1 million people alone.

Taxes: cuts ahead?

Taxes were the focus of both campaigns, as Trump and Harris promised to introduce a series of tax cuts and relief to help certain groups of people.

In some cases, candidates have offered the same tax breaks, such as: Eliminate taxes on tips. But Trump has gone a step further and offered a whole range of cuts to everyone Social Security recipients To Car buyer.

But the biggest problem before us is the future of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, Trump's signature 2017 law that provided big tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, as well as more modest tax cuts for millions of other Americans. Trump wants to renew many of these provisions while reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% from the current 21%.

Still, changes to the tax code must be passed by the House and Senate, which could be a major challenge for both candidates if there is a divided Congress during the next administration.

The Federal Deficit and Debt: Getting Bigger

Another problem is the country's national debt and growing deficit, with both candidates' economic proposals expected to increase the country's debt by trillions.

Harris' plans would increase the debt by nearly $4 trillion by 2035, while Trump's plan would increase it by nearly $8 trillion, according to a new analysis by the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which favors smaller deficits.

“National debt is currently at 99% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected to rise from 102% of GDP at the start of (fiscal year) 2026 to 125% by the end of 2035, based on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) current legal basis.” , the group wrote in an Oct. 28 analysis.

It added: “Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election will face an unprecedented financial situation when they take office… Already, the costs of servicing our high and rising national debt have exceeded the costs of defending our nation or providing health care to older Americans overshadowed.” “

It's also an issue that matters to Americans in battleground states, according to an October poll from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. It found that 9 in 10 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin think the candidates need a plan to reduce the national debt.